You know the season is close by when the Big East releases the conference schedule for each team. On Monday, the Big East did just that, and I have spent the past two days picking apart the schedule (yes, I fully understand how pathetic that reads). Below are my thoughts on the schedule. At the bottom, I give my conference prediction for the Providence Friars.
Roster Uncertainty
In the past, you could probably come within a game or two of picking the conference schedule outcome because the rosters had much more continuity. Historically, a big roster overhaul consisted of graduating 3-4 seniors, adding 3 freshman, and having the transfer you landed now eligible after having sit a year. These days, the rosters are almost night and day from what they were the year prior, and that makes understanding the quality of each team a real crapshoot.
Look at Providence, for instance. They are going to be with 13-14 new players! The college basketball purists would scoff at that notion of roster turnover, but that’s modern college basketball, unfortunately.
I ramble on about this because a team you think may be “weak or strong” on paper may be drastically different once the games are played because most of these players are acclimating to a new coach, system, roster, and conference.
Easy Conference Opener (It Should Be?)
Providence has a more forgiving opening game, going up against the Butler Bulldogs at home. They are led by new coach Ronald Nored . I won’t pretend to know the quality of their team (see above soapbox speech), but this is one of the more forgiving opening games if you are the Providence Friars as you open at home against a team projected to be towards the bottom of the Big East with a new coach coaching in his first Big East road game.
A Tale of Two Halves: First 10 Games Versus Last 10 Games
The first 10 games of conference play are going to dramatically test the Friars. 6 of the 10 games are on the road, and 3 of those 10 games are against perceived top 2 teams in St. John’s and Connecticut.
If the Friars can stay afloat with the first 10 games, the latter 10 games give the chance for the Friars to make their patented end of Big East play run that we came to know and love under Cooley.
This is my call to action to Friar fans: stay patient to start conference play. There are going to be some tough stretches in those first 10 games.
Brutal 4 Game Stretch
To go along with the above theme, there is a murderer’s row of 4 games that will test the Friars. Those games are Marquette away, Xavier at home, St. John’s away, Connecticut at home. If Providence can find a way to go .500 in those 4 games, they’ll put themselves in an incredible spot by end of Big East play.
Where do the Friars make their run?
I’m circling a 31 day stretch from January 23rd to February 23rd as the “month” where the Friars make their move and make a meteoric rise up the Big East standings. There are 9 games in this timeframe, and I can see Providence going at worst 6-3, with 7-2 or even 8-1 as a possibility. Keep tabs on this range of dates. I’ll have my calendar marked as this time period where the Friars make serious noise in the Big East.
Home Weekend Games Leave A Lot to be Desired
It would appear that the antics from last year are causing the Friars to be punished without any marquee home games on the weekend. Nova, St. John’s, Georgetown, or Connecticut would be a raucous weekend environment and a hot ticket for season ticket holders and Providence alums like myself who make the trek up to Rhode Island and come up to 1 or 2 games a year.
Instead, PC hosts Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall, DePaul, and Creighton. Woof. The Friar fanbase was dealt a bad hand here by Big East leadership.
Record Prediction
The fan in me says 13-7. The objective individual in me says 12-8 or 11-9.
Any of the 3 conference records SHOULD put them comfortably into the NCAA tournament heading into the Big East Tournament, especially with the tournament expansion.
Let me know what you all think about the above. Go Friars!
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