Providence needs to get a marquee win if it wants to get this season back on track. A home tilt against a top 10 team on New Year’s Eve is the perfect way to end 2024 and start 2025. If the season is to turn around, it starts with this big game at home.
We preview the game below, offer our keys to victory, and provide predictions.
Getting to know Marquette
Marquette is 11-2 on the year and #8 in the nation. This to me is incredibly impressive given the Golden Eagles lost Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro from last year’s NCAA tournament squad. I expected a step back from them and have been dead wrong. This has been quite a job by Shaka, especially when you consider he isn’t a huge advocate of the transfer portal.
Kam Jones leads the way for Marquette at 20 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, and 2 steals. He’s the frontrunner for Big East Player of the Year.
David Joplin is part of an impressive core supporting Jones, averaging 15 and 5 after patiently waiting his turn over the past few years in the program. Stevie Mitchell is their defensive stalwart and culture setter, the ultimate “love him when he is on your team and hate him when you play against him” guy. Chase Ross has made a junior year leap, averaging 11. Lastly, the frontcourt is led by Ben Gold, who is more known for his three point prowess despite being 6’11. This team is predominantly led by their guards and wings.
Marquette averages 80 points a game. Providence scores ten points less at 70.5 points a game.
Marquette averages 34 rebounds a game, approximately 6 less than the 40 Providence rebound totals. This is something to monitor, especially when you consider the lack of depth in the Marquette frontcourt.
One of the best attributes for Marquette is protecting the basketball, averaging only 9.2 turnovers a game, good for 6th nationally. Contrast that to Providence who turns the ball over 12.5 turnovers a game.
Keys to Game
Take Advantage of Lack of Big Man – It’s not exactly breaking news when I write that Providence is struggling at the 5 spot. This could be a game where you don’t necessarily see the struggles of the 5 that we’ve seen all year at PC, as Marquette doesn’t possess an imposing 5 man or one that is as skilled as an Oso Ighodaro. Ben Gold is a versatile frontcourt option who can punish you from deep if you don’t stay defensively honest, but I like this match-up for Oswin and Bonke. Oswin has the athleticism to stay with Gold, while English may throw a curveball and try to use the Bonke size advantage in the post on offense to get Gold in foul trouble. Bonke lacks advanced half court post moves, but English may just want to throw it down there a few times to see if Bonke’s size advantage leads to foul trouble on Gold and/or easy looks for Bonke. Additionally, I’d draw up lob looks for Oswin to see if Gold has match him athletically.
Not doing either of these things would be ignoring one of the few advantages Providence has in this game.
Will BHop Play? I’m truly praying that this is the last time I have to write this. Hopkins hasn’t played since DePaul on 12/10 and Providence has had two games since then, all close losses. Given the 21 day rest period, I’d be absolutely shocked if Hopkins doesn’t play. If he sits this one, you can pretty much throw this game out the window as an upset possibility.
If he does play, he becomes a match-up nightmare for the Golden Eagles. Marquette doesn’t have a lot of size in the frontcourt, so this match-up could be a great one for Providence. Hopkins could be a 15 and 10 guy in this game and impact the game on both ends.
Attack the Rim – If you are sensing a theme, it’s that I think Providence, especially with Bryce, can exploit Marquette in the paint and on the glass. I’d love to see Cardet carry over his aggressive nature from St. John’s and continue to try to manufacture offense attacking the rim.
If the three’s are dropping, great, but I don’t want our offense to be overly reliant on the 3 ball. It’s been hurting us all year, sans BYU.
How do you contain Kam Jones? I’m not sure anybody has this answer. Floyd Jr. is probably going to get the first crack at this, but Jones has the foot speed advantage on him. Pierre and Joseph are likely too small to guard him. The ask of the Friars is simple: he’s going to get his, but don’t let him dominate and take over the game. He’s an All-American type player for a reason. Make every look he has difficult and live with him getting his.
Take Care of the Basketball – 17 turnovers against St. John’s. With this pesky Marquette defense, Providence needs to keep turnovers to single digits if they even want to have a shot in this one. Stevie Mitchell is a pest as an on-ball defender, and the Providence lead guards need to prioritize ball security. It has been an issue all year, which is surprising given Joseph is a grad transfer and Pierre is a junior. They need to do better in this one to have a chance at the upset.
Weary of Sideline Defense – Marquette will often deploy a 6 man defense, with Shaka becoming a hybrid player-coach on the sideline. Providence needs to watch out for this surprise defensive strategy, as Shaka is adept at getting in the way of offenses when his team is on defense.
Predictions
BOC: If BHop plays, 73-71 Providence. If BHop sits, 80-67 Marquette.
Your pregame analysis is once again spot on! This game is a must win for the Friars on a number of fronts but most importantly its a nationally ranked team on our home court. We let the Johnnies game slip through our fingers knowing there is no way that we beat them at MSG later in the season. Marquette is the same scenario, its either this game or put two L’s in the standings. The next thing is Hopkins has to play, period. If he sits out this game then, its time to move forward. I’d give him the option of red shirting the year, get healthy in his mind then, return for a full season. Otherwise, if he thinks that a 1/2 season will get him into lottery pick position, he’s mis-informed. Tired of wondering. Nobody has been forthcoming and lots of people who bought season tickets for the season expecting big things, should have at least an honest report on his condition. Kim has been dancing around the subject all season and nobody in the media has been pushing or investigating the truth. I don’t care about conspiracy theories, all I want is the truth. On another note, it may have taken Kim a little longer than the fans but, very happy he’s playing Mela, Oswin and Bonk and has benched JAR and Christ. Great moves.