Providence is looking to stay undefeated in conference play and hosts St. John’s Friday at 8pm at The Amp. Providence is 1-0 in conference, but 7-5 on the season. St. John’s is also 1-0 in conference and 9-2 overall after blasting DePaul at home 89-61.
The Johnnies are incredibly balanced, led by a RJ Luis, Kadary Richmond, Zubi Ejifor, and Simeon Wilcher. They are, of course, led by Providence legend Rick Pitino in his second year as head coach.
I’ve drawn the line in the sand that Providence needs to hit the magic 13 number for wins in conference play to make the tournament given their abysmal non-conference performance. They are 12 wins away and have a slate of home games against tough opposition.
We break down the path forward to a Friar victory below.
Bryce Hopkins Availability – Simply put, Providence has no chance without Bryce. They need their alpha back in the line-up at home. He opens up the floor for everybody else on the team. Providence wins this game if Hop can go for an efficient 20 and 10. No pressure. He is going to essentially have to repeat what Devin Carter did last year with no Josh Oduro as a side-kick. Good luck, Bryce.
Knock Down Three’s – The only way PC pulls this one out in my opinion is if Providence knocks down 10+ three’s AND does that at a minimum percentage of 40% from deep. Tall task? Yes. But this team is built around knocking down the deep ball and they need to do it to secure the upset. The three ball evens out a game where I think St. John’s has a decidedly clear talent advantage.
Dedication to the Glass – The Johnnies don’t necessarily have a big team but they are athletic as all heck and can punish PC on the glass. The Friars cannot afford to have a game like they did against St. Bonaventure where there were countless second chance opportunities. Rebounding needs to be highly emphasized all week of practice for the Friars.
Limit Transition – Providence needs to ensure the Johnnies don’t get out and run much. They have athletes everywhere, and an open court in transition is exactly what this team wants. If Providence has to pick its poison, it is grinding the game to a halt and forcing St. John’s to win in the half court. They need to ugly it up, a la Ed Cooley’s old squads.
Change to Line-Up – I’ve made my stance clear on Mela after the Bonnies game. He needs to, at a minimum, be first off the bench. He warrants more playing time. St. John’s may not be an ideal match-up for him to start, but the kid continues to surprise. He may surprise again and be a stabilizing force in the starting line-up. PC has nothing to lose, and he has played well enough to earn more minutes. He hardly ever makes any mistakes and good things seem to happen when he is on the court.
Guard the Mid-Range – Oh, the irony. St. John’s seems to thrive in the pull-up mid-range. PC’s defense seemingly wants defenders to take that shot. If we give it to them without resistance, they will kill us all night. There needs to be a defensive switch in strategy to not give these looks to them. Wilcher and Luis will have a field day.
Ball Security – Suffice to say, Providence has had turnover issues. This goes along with the second chance opportunity theme and limiting buckets in transition, but you cannot give St. John’s easy opportunities to score. If Providence is to win, it has to keep turnovers to single digits and of the dead ball variety if they are to happen.
Crowd Factor – An 8pm tip on a Friday ensures the crowd will be loud and hostile. This is the first true road game for St. John’s, and we saw how BYU reacted to the Providence faithful. Providence needs to jump out to a quick start to keep the crowd engaged. The crowd CAN be a factor. Will the team’s play allow it to be?
Prediction
BOC: Even at home on a boozy Friday night, with BHop returning, St. John’s flexes its muscles and wins comfortably. They are too deep and strong for this reeling PC squad. 75-66 Red Storm.
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