We all remember 2014. Providence, led by Bryce Cotton and LaDontae Henton, used a magical run in the 2014 Big East Tournament to solidify a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Ten years later, we are faced with an eerily similar situation. Providence, as of this writing, needs to win a minimum of two games, with three wins being likely, to ensure a spot in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Everybody is counting the Friars out. If I know anything about the Providence DNA, the Friars are at their best when their backs are against the wall, and they have to claw their way out of a hole.
An NCAA tournament bid would mean achieving wins over Georgetown, Creighton, and Marquette/Villanova. A tall task for this short handed squad, but, as Jon Rothstein says, “This is March”. Anything can happen, especially in the friendly confines of Madison Square Garden.
As we all know, the World’s Most Famous arena has served as a second home of sorts to the Friar Faithful. Despite the volatility of the season, Providence will show up in droves ready to see Kim English and The Boys go to battle.
Rather than write a third article previewing the keys to victory over the Georgetown Hoyas, we’re taking a higher level approach to pinpoint what the Friars need to do to make a March weekend run in The Big Apple.
We hope you enjoy.
For those who want to read our Georgetown specific recap, see below:
Without further ado, the keys to a Friar Big East Tournament Run
Devin Carter Must Go NUCLEAR – Devin Carter is a unanimous Big East First Teamer. When you are reading this, Carter may be the Big East Player of the Year. If Providence is to make a Big East Tournament run, Devin Carter somehow needs to find another level, if that is at all possible. Carter has to carry this team for four games. He needs to play like a Top 10 pick that is a pro playing amongst inferior college players.
Carter is averaging 19.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks on the season. Carter has to put up a stat-line over the weekend of something along the lines of 25, 10, 4, 2, and 1. I know that sounds absurd, but if anybody has it in him, it is Devin Carter. Carter going gangbusters is the only way Providence has a chance.
Josh Oduro Must Be The Robin to Carter’s Batman – Josh Oduro is the second piece of the Providence dynamic duo, garnering All Conference Honorable Mention honors. Carter and Oduro are averaging 35.5 points/game between them. If Providence gets to Saturday, Oduro and Carter are going to have to be scoring 45 points/game at The Garden.
We know now what we have in the rest of the roster, for better or worse. I’m done waiting for the consistent contributions of the role players. Carter and Oduro have to will this team to 4 victories pretty much all on their own.
Somebody taking an opposing stance may say balanced scoring is the key to a sustained weekend run, and I don’t disagree. I just haven’t seen this Providence team do that all year, so I’m not expecting them to magically do it now. I do know Devin and Josh can carry this team, so I’ll hitch my wagon to our two all-conference players and go down with the ship if they can’t do it on their own.
Third Scorer Somehow HAS To Emerge From The Shadows – After Carter and Oduro, the third leading scorer on this team is averaging 8.8 points/game. The gap between second and third leading scorer is almost 8 total points.
If Providence is to make a run, a third scorer, whether that be Pierre, Dual, Floyd Jr., Gaines, or Barron, needs to average 12 points per game over the weekend. If I had to pick anybody to do it, it would be Gaines or Floyd Jr.
Barron is good for hitting 2-3 three pointers a game, and it is nice to have that constant 6-10 points/game from him. The all-freshman award may boost his confidence a bit more too, so let’s not count him out as the third option.
Pierre has shown he can go off (see road Xavier game), but he looked like a shell of himself against UConn, and I worry about his mental state following that game.
Floyd Jr. has emerged at times (see road UConn game and Butler game), but he also seems to struggle with his confidence. The only constant with Corey right now is his inconsistency.
Dual is a freshman and struggles mightily offensively despite all the raw talents in the world.
One of these guys needs to have some pride and take offense to the Providence media (including yours truly) essentially saying the Friars have nobody on offense besides Carter and Oduro. Prove me wrong, and Providence has a chance.
Hot Weekend From Deep – Providence is shooting 33.2% from deep, good for 2nd to last in the Big East. If the Friars make it to Saturday, they need to shoot a combined 37-40% from deep. This offense isn’t good enough to generate consistent offense, exemplified by the fact that they are 7th in the Big East in scoring at 72.8 points/game. It is better to be lucky than good sometimes, and I’m hoping the friendly NBA rims at MSG find the Friars uncharacteristically hot from deep.
Ticket Gaines, specifically, needs to find his stroke. For a guy billed as a 3 and D player coming in, he’s only shooting 32.5% from deep on the year. That has to change this weekend if the Friars want to make it to The Big Dance.
It may be time to ditch the mask, injury concerns be damned.
Find Their Footing on Defense – Providence, despite getting their doors blown off in 3 of the last 4 games, is still third in the Big East is points allowed per game, allowing opponents to only score 68.9 points per game. They are behind Connecticut and Villanova, who both possess stellar team defenses.
Providence needs to make every game a rock fight, especially against a potent Creighton and Marquette squad. If Providence can keep every game in the 60’s, it creates the chance for PC to still win despite minimal inputs from the players outside Carter and Oduro.
Summary
In reading the above, you can talk yourself into these things transpiring. It is a lot to ask, but I do think it ultimately comes down to the role players stepping up and each opponent they play to have a rough scoring night. Providence can influence that with their defensive efforts, but luck needs to be on their side where a Creighton and Marquette are ice cold from the field.
Let’s get through Georgetown first, which will be looking to end the Providence season, and then take it one game at a time.
There is something special about the World’s Most Famous Arena. Let’s replicate the magical run of 10 years ago.
Go Friars.
BOC as usual a great analysis of the team. I’m not too pleased at all with Pierre’s play. He takes too long to make a decision on what to do with the rock cutting valuable seconds off the clock before the play gets into motion. Also he turns the ball over way too much. I count him out as a third helper for Carter and Oduro. We need Barron and Gaines to hit treys. I have to sadly admit that I am not too confident going into this tournament but I am hopeful that the team will rise up to the occasion and surprise us all. But like you said lets defeat the Hoyas first and take it from there. Go Friars!
It’s never easy to beat a big east three times in one season. Georgetown looked pretty good on Saturday against a much better team in St. John’s. Providence is the easiest team in the BE to scout. Two man game offensively with the gang that can’t shoot strait rounding out the offense. Defensively, run the guards into a screen up top and lots of players will dramatically appear open. All season long, man to man defense no zone as a change up no matter what the score is or how much of a run the opponent makes. At least two scoring droughts of at least 5 minutes long. Our team is cooked and Coach is already looking forward to next season and recruiting. Don’t blame him. Like he said in his post game press conference and immediately took back, we made some mistakes (with the roster). Had he finished his thought, probably wished he could have done more in the portal at PG, SG and a bina fide big east ready center. Don’t blame him there either. Just keeping it real…. NO pipe dreaming cause Bryce Cotton isn’t walking through that door to quote a Hall of Fame Coach!!!!
Crier
Your suggestion that Gaines should remove his mask,”injury be damned ” for a basketball game is irresponsible.