Win this game, and Providence is in the NCAA tournament. It is as simple as that. Providence has had two chances to solidify their NCAA tournament bid (win against Marquette or Villanova) and fell short twice. The UConn game presents another opportunity to bolster their resume and assure themselves of being in March Madness.
Connecticut is playing incredible basketball right now. They are the Big East regular season champions and one of the handful of teams in college basketball deemed a “favorite” to win it all.
Providence will be the home underdog, but they have a few things going for it. Connecticut, despite all their successes, has an incredibly tough time winning in Providence. The Huskies haven’t won in Rhode Island in 10+ years. Given the success of Connecticut, that stat is really mind boggling.
The second thing going for it is the tip time. An 8pm tip ensures a full day of “activities”, and I expect the AMP to be a zoo. The fans will be all over the refs after the ref show in Storrs earlier in the year (Providence fans have long memories), and we all know Danny Hurley has a thin skin when it comes to the banter from fans. The fans in attendance have a very real chance to influence this game outcome.
The last advantage is Providence admittedly has a lot more to play for than Connecticut does. Connecticut has won the Big East already and is locked in as the #1 seed in the Big East Tournament. Besides beating a rival in Providence, there isn’t much on the line for Connecticut. A loss here doesn’t knock them off the 1 seed line either, in my opinion.
The lack of motivation is not the case for Providence. The Friars have everything to play for. If they win, they don’t have to do anything else the rest of season to ensure an NCAA bid. Kim English & the team know what is at stake here. They need to play with an urgency unlike any they’ve played with all season.
Beyond what we highlighted above, we detail what Providence needs to do to secure an upset victory.
Know Your Shooters: Karaban and Spencer – Providence has to pick their poison in this one. Karaban and Spencer are two incredibly well rounded players and can finish in the mid range and at the rim. Providence needs to live with that possibility instead of daring both to beat them from deep (because they absolutely can).
Spencer is shooting a ridiculous 46% from 3, while Karaban is still elite at 39%. If Connecticut beats Providence in the paint and mid-range, you have to live with that if you are Kim English.
In PC’s last two losses, Marquette and Villanova were unusually hot from deep, and that ultimately did Providence in. I’d rather live with Connecticut beating us off the dribble than from deep because they absolutely have the horses to win from the perimeter.
Oduro Staying Out of Foul Trouble – Oduro clearly got the better of Clingan in the first match-up, and we need another exceptional performance from Josh to pull off an upset. Oduro did get in foul trouble at Storrs, and that was the only thing that slowed him down. Oduro scored 20 points in 23 minutes, but fouled out. English needs to reiterate to Josh to not put himself in a position for a foul. Oduro needs to be on the court for 35 minutes in this one.
Get Downhill, Mr. Carter – Connecticut did a fantastic job of making life difficult for Devin Carter in the first match-up. Carter scored 20 points, but on an inefficient 6-18 shooting.
Despite the abundance of foul calls in the first match-up, the refs oddly let the defenders play a physical game against Carter. I wasn’t frustrated with the lack of calls, as I prefer the refs swallow their whistle, but I found the inconsistencies in the refs peculiar. There were a few plays where the defender impeded Carter’s driving lane with his body, and the refs didn’t blow the whistle. If the refs weren’t calling every hand touch otherwise, I wouldn’t bring this up.
I’d like to see Carter take this same exact approach and see how the refs call the game in a hostile environment at Providence. I think he gets the calls at home he didn’t get in Storrs, to be honest.
I’d prefer Carter attacking the rim and being aggressive and not choosing the deep ball as his preferred offensive option. That will open up the offense for the Friars.
Barron, Pierre, and Ticket – Empty the Clip – The defensive focus is going to be on Carter and Oduro. Rightly so. These three are going to get quality looks from deep. If PC is going to win, these three need to collectively shoot a minimum of 35% from deep. If they can keep the Huskies defense from sagging to help on Carter and Oduro, Providence’s offense flows much better. The only way they prevent them from doubling and packing the paint is by making their open looks.
Avoid the Five Minute Lull – Even in the victory against Georgetown, we saw the same issues on offense that have transpired all season: a 5 minute offensive lull where the Friars turn the ball over, struggle on offense, and allow the opposition to go on a run. Connecticut can bury this team in a hurry if PC falls asleep for a 5 minute span. The level of urgency needs to be there for all 40 minutes, and Providence can’t afford to lose focus.
What’s Next
Providence has a chance to secure the 5 seed in the Big East tournament with a win here and Villanova loss at Creighton. Saturday should be a very fun day with a lot at stake for the Friars.
As we’ve said countless times, Providence controls their destiny, and that is all you can ask for.
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