After the circus that was the St. John’s home loss, it seems rather deflating to know Providence still has to play five more regular season games before the Big East Tournament commences. But alas, they do, and they head to the Windy City to take on the DePaul Blue Demons.
DePaul is riding a two game winning streak against Seton Hall and Creighton. Their last loss was ironically against the Providence Friars, a 90-72 shellacking. In that game, Providence’s offense was red-hot, going 59% from the floor and 43% from 3. The normally stout DePaul defense did not show up. Providence also had its way with the Blue Demons on the glass (41-28 advantage).
DePaul has struggled all year offensively, and this game was no different. Providence has been a turnstile defensively, but held DePaul to 43% from the floor and 22% from three. Yes, miracles can happen.
This game will inevitably be closer, and we preview below what we’re looking to see in this rematch.
Keys to Game
Health of Jason Edwards and Corey Floyd Jr.
Jason Edwards was an 11th hour scratch against St. John’s, warming up pre-game before deciding he couldn’t go, and his absence was felt immediately post the ejection of Jaylin Sellers. With Sellers no longer available, alongside the injuries to Barron, Davis, Harrell, and Floyd Jr., Providence asked the combination of Nilavan Daniels and Jack Williams to play 21 minutes. While I love what Daniels brings to the court with his intensity and effort, and I do think there’s a role for him on a team still searching for defensive answers, Providence also needs guys that can put the ball in the bucket.
The season is a bust at this point, but if you are holding on to any irrational glimmer of hope, it’s that this season marked by peculiar injuries turns a corner, and the Friars have a healthy core going into Big East Tournament week. We’ll see if this week off between games allows Edwards to get fully healthy. He was both explosive and efficient in the first game, going for 25 points on 8-13 from the floor.
For Floyd Jr., I’m also hopeful the week off allows him to recover so we can turn to him to do all of the dirty work on the defensive end and be a force multiplier on the glass. He’s never going to be a 20+ point scorer, but he can slow down an opposing team’s offense, and the Friars are a deeper and more competent roster with Floyd available.
If Nothing Else is Accomplished, Show An Effort to Take Care of the Basketball
Despite beating DePaul by 18, Providence still turned the ball over 16 times. In the last three games, Providence has turned the ball over a total of 48 times. It’s unacceptable.
They currently are in last place in the Big East at 12.2 turnovers/game. DePaul has a stingy man defense, and Providence needs to really prioritize ball possession and not carelessly turning the ball over.
This Providence offense is still by far the best in the Big East in points per game (3.4 points better than #2), are #2 in field goal percentage behind Connecticut, fourth in three point field goal %, first in free throw percentage, and first in total rebounds.
It is these stats that make this season so frustrating. The puzzle pieces are there, but unfortunately there are two things that are absolutely crushing Providence and holding them back: turnovers and defense.
Replicate Defense from First Match-Up?
Providence is a league worst in points allowed at 85.4 points per game. The gap between them and the second to last team is 6.4 points. You almost cannot fathom how bad the defense has been all season, but in the game against DePaul they bowed up and played solid defense. Can they replicate what they did against DePaul in game 1? I have my doubts.
Providence is a league worst allowing 36.9% from three, but DePaul only averages 33.0% on the season.
We’ll see if the defensive effort is there after a deflating home loss to St. John’s. I do fear that Providence doesn’t show up emotionally and mentally in this one. It’s been a long season, but credit to these kids in that they have continued to show up and battle (outside the Xavier game) in these meaningless games.
Committing a Hard Foul to Set the Tone
Just kidding.