For whatever reason, Providence has had absolutely no success of recent when traveling to Milwaukee to take on the Golden Eagles of Marquette. It’s gotten to the point where I’d rather play the Connecticut Huskies at their place and feel better about a chance of victory there solely because of how poorly Providence has played against Marquette.
Yes, the Golden Eagles have been a perennial Top 25-ish program over the past few years under Shaka Smart, but it just seems like whenever Providence travels there, you can chalk up the game to a loss. The last win by the Friars on the road against Marquette was in 2019-2020 by one point. Since then, the Golden Eagles have made easy work of the Friars on their home court, winning by an average of 20.4 points. Yes, that stat is accurate as I checked the numbers in few times out of shock. Providence of recent lays down on the mat whenever they go on the road to Wisconsin, but I’m hopeful this year will turn the tide.
The fall of the Golden Eagles this year is shocking due to just how drastically they’ve fallen off the map in college basketball, but it isn’t exactly surprising if you follow recruiting, the transfer portal, and how Shaka operates the two. Shaka Smart is a big believer in building a culture through roster continuity and building through high school recruiting exclusively, and the last few years have shown him to be directionally accurate in this approach despite the NCAA heading in the complete opposite direction.
He is Dabo Swinney like in his refusal to add players via the portal, with the belief that his ability to find players in high school and develop them throughout their tenure at Marquette trumps plugging holes in the transfer portal via one year mercenaries. While I am personally a huge advocate of “majoring in high school recruiting, minoring in the portal” and appreciate the intent of what Shaka is trying to do, it is malfeasance to not at least look to add 1 or 2 players per offseason in the transfer portal. There are without a doubt guys in the portal that would fit seamlessly with the Marquette culture. Not at least entertaining the idea of augmenting your already strong roster with a portal player or two is managing a team with one hand tied behind your back, and that is a choice Smart is actively making.
Marquette has flamed out in the NCAA tournament over the past few years, and I’m certain Golden Eagles fans are frustrated with Shaka’s stubbornness in not adding a piece or two to put these Top 25 rosters over the top to be legitimate national title contenders. That’s not hyperbole either, by the way. Adding 1 or 2 immediate impact portal guys to the Marquette rosters over the past few years that had Oso, Kolek, Jones, etc. could have made them a contender to win it all, but Shaka just outright refuses to add via the portal.
By not adding any portal guys, you essentially have to nail every high school evaluation, which is an impossibility. That hasn’t happened for Smart, and this year is the culmination of not adding portal players and the talent recruits out of high school not making the year over year leap we’ve come to know with the Golden Eagles.
Marquette is currently 6-13 and last in the Big East at 1-7. If Providence is going to pick off the Golden Eagles at their place, this year is the year to do it.
We preview the game below and what the Friars need to do to win on the road.
Keys to Game
Implement 2nd Half Creighton Strategy Against Marquette
I truly think Providence found something in the waning moments of the first half and entirety of the second half against Creighton. They stopped forcing offense from the perimeter by hoisting 3’s. Instead, they deliberately designed an offense that operates in the paint and attacks the rim.
In this game, I want to see them do the same exact thing for 40 minutes. Marquette doesn’t have a lot of size in their frontcourt and it shows in their blocks/game numbers. They are second to last in the Big East at 2.8 blocks/game. Ben Gold is 6’11 but is more of a perimeter threat offensively and doesn’t pose too much of a threat in the paint. Royce Parham is a guy I like a lot for his effort and intensity (typical Marquette forward under Smart, which is a huge compliment), but he is 6’8 on a good day. Take advantage of the lack of size and have Oswin build off his 14/13 performance against Creighton.
Providence can win this game continually driving to the hoop and seeing if the Golden Eagles can play adequate defense in the paint for 40 minutes. Settling for 3’s and emphasizing a perimeter-oriented offense is giving Marquette the best chance to win this game, in my opinion.
The Golden Eagles and their defense are night and day from what they normally are under Shaka Smart. They let up 77.4 points/game, which is second worst in the Big East behind the defensive juggernaut that is the Providence Friars. Providence can exploit this Marquette team and should be leaning on their athleticism to wear out the Golden Eagles.
Offensive Strategy Part 2 – Be Ready for Zone Defense
Providence was comfortably ahead of Creighton, up 14 at one point in the second half, before Coach McDermott threw a curveball at the Friars and implemented a zone defense. It was as if Providence had never played against a zone defense before, as the ball on offense swung without purpose around the perimeter before Providence heaved contested 3 after contested 3. This zone defense led to turnovers and missed shots, which allowed Creighton to climb back into the game before ultimately falling short.
Providence needs to be ready for Shaka to throw this zone at them early and often until they show they can exploit it. My recommendation: flash Jamier Jones at the top of the key and let him be the trigger man in the middle of the zone defense. We know Jamier is decisive with the rock, and he can choose to take it on his own or find a lob man in Oswin or Powell once the defense sucks in to defend Jamier. My other candidate would be Jaylin Sellers for his ability to hit the mid-range shot and finish in transition/through contact. Floyd was operating at the top of the key against Creighton, but he is too tentative right now to play that role.
Know the Scout – Selective 3 Point Shooters
As of this writing, Providence is last in Big East in 3 point field goal defense, allowing 37.5% from deep. Marquette is last in Big East in 3 point field goal %, making an abysmal 30.7%. Something has to give.
There are a few guys who have shown the ability to consistently fill it up from deep for Marquette: superb freshman Nigel James at 38.7% and Adrien Stevens at 37.3%. You need to identify these guys and know they are one of the few players on Marquette that can beat you from deep. The 3 ball is the great equalizer, and Marquette can win if they get hot from deep, which it seems is a common denominator for all teams against PC.
One caveat: Ben Gold is shooting an abysmal 25% from 3, but he is the perimeter oriented big man that Oswin has so mightily struggled to defense. The late close-outs by Oswin are a huge problem and need to be remedied in this one, as I can easily see the Aussie busting out of his slump and going 4-7 from 3 if Oswin is late to close out like he has been all year. It is something that needs to be hammered home pre-game and throughout the game to Oswin and Powell. It’s a very easy thing to guard. All it takes is preparation and a bit of effort. You can’t fall asleep on defense with these rangy bigs because Gold can make you pay despite his subpar numbers.
Take Care of the Basketball
While Stevie Mitchell is thankfully not on the team anymore, Marquette is still 2nd in the Big East in steals/game at 9.0 steals. That is 0.6 steals/game below Seton Hall, and we saw just how much we struggled against the Hall earlier in the year.
Providence is prone to being very sloppy with the basketball, exemplified by the 11.7 turnovers a game. PC needs to prioritize taking care of the basketball in this one.
Marquette is limping along and struggling in all facets of the game. Don’t give them easy buckets by handing the ball to them for 2 and giving the team and crowd life.
If Providence Prioritizes Defense…
Nothing about Marquette’s offense is pretty right now:
They are 9th in the Big East in points/game at 74.3 points.
They are 9th in the Big East in assists/game at 14.9
They are last in the Big East in field goal % at 41.3%.
They are last in Big East in 3 point field goal % at 30.7%.
They are last in the Big East in free throw % at 68.2%.
Nothing they do is even average offensively…but the Friars have a way of helping teams get out of a rut offensively. If Providence wants to win this game, they should spend all their time focusing on their defensive efforts. The Friar offense is too good to lay a clunker, so I wouldn’t worry there. If PC shows even a semblance of resistance defensively, they should win this one, but unfortunately Providence has “no-showed” too many times this season on the defensive end. We shall see.
Predictions
BOC: Providence breaks the Marquette curse and wins on the road 81-78. They have a 2 game winning streak heading into the reunion game at home with the Philosopher himself, Ed Cooley.