It seems an eternity ago that Providence had all this positive momentum after a come from behind victory on the road against Bryce Hopkins and St. John’s. Sadly, that was only a week ago.
Since that time of short term jubilation, PC choked away a victory against the Top 5 Connecticut Huskies and slept walk through a clobbering at the hands of the middling Xavier Musketeers. Now at 8-8 and 1-4 in the Big East, optimism has been replaced by a combination of frustration and apathy amongst the Friar fanbase. Naturally, Providence will come out at home against Villanova and clobber the Wildcats to utterly confuse the Friar faithful.
If it weren’t for the domination nationally by the Huskies, the Villanova Wildcats would be the talk of the Big East as the biggest surprise in the conference, rivaling similar accomplishments of the Seton Hall Pirates. Villanova is currently 13-3 under new coach Kevin Willard and sitting tied for 2nd with the Hall and Red Storm at 4-1 in conference.
What Villanova is doing is a testament to the coaching acumen of Kevin Willard who essentially had to replace the entirety of the Villanova roster. The two holdovers from the Kyle Neptune regime that are logging rotational minutes are Tyler Perkins and Matt Hodge, both returners averaging over 26 minutes played and 10 points per game. Beyond that, stellar high school recruiting compounded with excellent transfer portal evaluation have elevated this team beyond even what the most optimistic of Main Line fans thought was possible.
Bryce Lindsay, a transfer from James Madison that was rumored to be a Friar early in the portal season before both parties went their separate ways, is 6th in the Big East at scoring at 15.6 points/game and shooting a blistering 41.6% from 3 (gulp). Stud true freshman Acaden Lewis, a one-time Kentucky lean, is also pacing the backcourt for Villanova with 13 points and 2nd in Big East in assists at 5.2 assists/game. To round it out is transfer big Duke Brennan, a frontcourt player averaging 12 points and 10.9 rebounds, that stat good for 2nd in Big East. What does this all mean? Villanova can beat you in a multitude of ways and has an incredibly well rounded roster.
Things are bleak in Providence, but we’ll do our best to provide some thoughts on how Providence can try to get back on track and secure a win at home, where they are currently 0-2 in Big East play.
Keys to Game
Health of Jamier Jones
Even if Jamier isn’t 100% healthy, the Xavier game shows just how important the true freshman is to this Friar squad. It is not just his ability to generate offense by attacking the rim and creating scoring opportunities all on his own as a one man fast break. It is the intangibles he brings to the roster that were so missed against the Musketeers.
Jamier is the tone-setter for this Friar squad, which is saying something given he is a true freshman surrounded by a roster of upperclassmen, but I digress. Providence needs his swagger and confidence back on the court because the Friars personality wise are night and day with and without him on the court.
I expect him to play.
Defend the Three Point Line…PLEASE
I have no clue what happened against Xavier, but they just seemed woefully unprepared for how to defend the Musketeers. Villanova is 3rd in the Big East in three point field goal percentage at 36.1%, just a hair above the Musketeers at 36.0%.
At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, I don’t care if Villanova scores 90 points on dunks and lay-ups. Providence needs to show an ability to scout an opposition properly. More importantly, just show an ability to adequately defend on the perimeter. Just like Xavier, Villanova gets a lot of its offense off 3 point attempts (3rd in Big East at attempts/game).
I feel as if I’m writing the same couple of “keys to the game” every pre-game article, but it is because Providence continues to allow the same things to happen to them every game which ultimately lead to their demise. At some point, you need to take some pride in your craft and realize trying to outscore a team with half-hearted defense and effort isn’t going to cut it.
On that note…I want to see the transfer guys, namely Edwards and Sellers, play like they care. It is one thing to show effort on offense when you are trying to “get yours”. It is another to make hustle plays on defense, loose balls, etc. The Xavier game was ugly, and I’m sure watching tape over the weekend wasn’t a fun exercise for those two.
They were brought in to be leaders, and they need to start acting like it in all phases of the game.
Do Your Best to Keep Brennan Off the Glass
The Grand Canyon transfer has been a revelation for the Wildcats. He is a one man wrecking crew on the glass and needs to be accounted for every time a shot goes up. Find where he is, box him out, and make the other Wildcats secure second chance opportunities. He is actually putting up better numbers this year at a much higher level than he did last year at Grand Canyon, and that is commendable.
This Villanova team doesn’t have many others who are ferociously attacking the glass like Brennan. The next leading rebounder is guard Tyler Perkins at 4.8 rebounds.
Keep Brennan off the glass, and the Friars have a chance.
Stop Settling for 3’s and Attack the Rim Relentlessly, Know the Opposition
Villanova is last in the Big East in blocks per game at 2.4 blocks. If there is a weakness to this Wildcat squad, it is that they don’t have much size at all.
Providence needs to exploit this. The Friars have a ton of players who can get to the rim and finish through contact. This is a game where PC should not be settling for 3’s and the offensive strategy should be predicated on playing downhill and relentlessly attacking the rim until Villanova shows they can stop it.
If they start the game attacking the rim, Villanova will be forced to have helpside defense which will then lead to open guys on the perimeter. This should be the path forward for the Friars in all games moving forward.
To use a football analogy, establish the run to set up the pass. Establish the dribble drive to set up the three point look.
Put Brennan on the Foul Line
Duke Brennan is a force on the glass and a disaster at the free throw line. He’s shooting 54% from charity stripe. If the game is close, it may not be the worst idea to put Hargrove and Pinnis in the game solely to put Brennan on the free throw line.
Prediction
BOC: Because this season has made absolutely no sense, I’m going to say that PC puts together a solid game and wins 84 – 80, and Friar fans will have no clue how to feel. I have no reason to predict a win beyond a gut feel, but I also thought PC would win with ease against Xavier, so take this prediction with a grain of salt.