One must have the memory of a goldfish in the Big East. Days after a crippling overtime loss to Connecticut, Providence must put that in the rearview mirror and look to secure a road victory against the Xavier Musketeers. You can’t let losses linger in the Big East or you enter into a freefall quickly. Providence needs to make sure Connecticut doesn’t beat them twice today.
At 8-7, Providence has woefully underachieved relative to preseason expectations, but they have played noticeably better basketball in the last two games against the top two talented teams in the Big East in St. John’s and Connecticut. They will look to carry over an uptick in performance with a road game in Cincinnati as they play a struggling Xavier team.
Xavier is 9-7 and currently 1-4 in the Big East. As of this writing, Xavier is 106 in KenPom (Providence is 63) and 122 in the NET (Providence 88). If Providence is able to secure the victory on the road, this would classify as a Q2 victory and would ironically help bolster the resume of Providence.
I break down the keys to the game below and detail why I feel good about the Friars in this one.
Comparing the Two Teams – Rank in Big East
Points/Game: Providence 1st at 89.5, Xavier 8th at 75.5
Field Goal Percentage: Providence 2nd at 47.7%, Xavier 10th at 42.0
Three Point Field Goal Percentage: Providence 2nd at 36.4%, Xavier 4th at 35.7%
Free Throw Percentage: Providence 1st at 78.4%, Xavier last at 68.1%
Rebounds/Game: Providence 2nd at 39.2, Xavier 10th at 35.4
Turnovers/Game: Xavier 2nd at 10.0, Providence 8th at 11.9
After comparing the two teams, this is a game that Providence has decided advantages in across the board. Cintas is a tough place to be, no question, but objectively this Xavier team is not playing great basketball right now. Providence should walk into this game expecting to win, and English should lean into the fact they went toe to toe with the top two teams in the Big East and almost came out on top twice.
Win, and the theme of building positive momentum in 2026 continues. Lose, and you can probably put the nail in the coffin for the season at 8-8 and 1-4 in the Big East.
Keys to Game
Limiting Turnovers
The one area where Xavier is a better squad is in limiting turnovers, averaging almost two less turnovers a game. On the road, Providence needs to not be loose with the basketball, as this is a way to let an inferior team hang around. In the match-up against Connecticut, Providence had 17 turnovers to Connecticut’s 12. I’ve been preaching the entire English tenure that he needs to do a better job of instilling the importance of ball possession. Providence cannot start getting lackadaisical with the basketball, especially if they build a comfortable lead. That’s how they let Connecticut continue to hang around by having empty calorie offensive possessions, and it ended up biting them.
Powell More Playing Time?
Powell had arguably his best game of the season against Connecticut, and I’d like to see him get expanded minutes in place of Hargrove and Pinnis. Ideally, we want Oswin to be playing 30 minutes, but he just hasn’t shown the consistency to stay out of foul trouble. If Oswin does get into foul trouble, I’d turn to Powell as the back-up 5 and ask the Friars to play small ball. With Powell on the court, we may be giving up a lot of size in the frontcourt at the 5 spot, but at least he offers something offensively. Hargrove unfortunately hasn’t given much on either end of recent.
Health of Jamier Jones
This likely ties closely with above in Powell getting more playing time, but I’m wondering if Jones suits up today. He had a lingering shoulder injury from the St. John’s game before aggravating it further against Connecticut.
This would be a big loss. Jamier is arguably playing like a top 2 or 3 player on the Friars, and he is really emerging as an alpha on this Providence squad.
Him coming back into the game against Connecticut showed his competitive nature, so I wouldn’t put it past Jones to again play through some pain. The Friars need him.
Engaged on Three Point Defense
Providence as of this writing is 338th nationally out of 365 teams in three point field goal percentage, sandwiched between the powers of Kent State and East Texas A&M. They are allowing teams to shoot 37.8% from three against them, an almost impossible thing to do even if nobody was guarding you. Xavier has their warts, sure, but they do have 8 guys in their rotation that shoot above 30% from three. You need to know your scout here.
The primary reason PC lost against Connecticut is due to careless turnovers in the last 3 minutes, but the three point defense was just as much to blame. They kept losing the Husky players from deep, and the Huskies made them pay. Providence shot 58% from deep against Connecticut and lost. You want to know why? They allowed Connecticut to go 56% from deep.
This cannot happen against Xavier.
If Providence wants to make any type of miracle run, it has to start on the defensive end. They are still by far the worst team in the Big East in points allowed/game. If a run is at all going to happen, the defense needs to continue to improve so that they become a league average defense. If they can incrementally improve to even being average, the team’s offense should carry them to victories.
Prediction
BOC: I spend far too much time crunching the numbers on Providence and their Big East foes, and I just see two teams that may have similar records but are worlds apart. I may end up looking foolish for this analysis, but I do anticipate a comfortable victory for Providence, even on the road.
PC 85, Xavier 78
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