Providence is looking to claim Ocean State Supremacy on Tuesday night with a victory over the Ivy League Brown Bears. With a win over Rhode Island on Saturday and win against Brown Tuesday, they can lay claim to this mythical title (schedule Bryant in the future…Why not!).
This game is important to Providence because it will put them on a 3 game winning streak heading into Big East conference play. This would be the first 3 game winning streak since their victory against Hampton on 11/12/24. With this aforementioned winning streak, they’d conclude their non-conference at 7-4 and staring at a need to go 13-7 or 14-6 in the Big East to get into the NCAA tournament. A long road ahead, but the Friars are at least digging themselves out of the hole they put themselves in early in the season.
Below, we provide an overview of this Brown team and what we are looking to see from the Friars.
Brown Resume Overview
5-6 on season
19 point win over Holy Cross (PC won by 10 against Cross), 12 point win over UNH (Providence won by 32), 10 point loss to URI (Providence beat Rhody by 19)
Brown is currently 229 in KenPom (PC is 60) and 255 in NET (PC is 85)
Brown Team Overview
Brown is a really below average offensive team, averaging 70.1 points per game. That is good for 314th nationally. Providence, on the complete other end of the spectrum, is 19th nationally at 90.4 points per game. This is another game where if Providence brings even it’s “B” game offensively, they should win running away.
What’s REALLY interesting is that Brown is 14th nationally at only allowing 63.5 points per game to the opposition, while Providence is 336th nationally (YUCK) at allowing 82.4 points per game.
So, it is a match-up of objectively an elite defense (to date) versus an elite offense (to date). This is a great test of contrasting coaching styles to see which team can get the other to play their game.
Despite being a subpar offensive team as an aggregate, Brown is actually a slightly above average 3 point shooting team, averaging 34.7% on the year (139th nationally). Providence is notably better at 36.3% on the year (85th). I bring this up because Providence is 343th nationally at allowing teams to shoot 37.8% from deep against them. This illustrates the defensive shortcomings we’ve seen thus far from the Friars.
If there is a path to an upset for Brown, it’s Brown playing stellar defense that frustrates the Friar offense, slowing down the game to a crawl to force PC to play in a half-court set primarily, and then finally Brown getting hot from deep. That should be the blueprint if you are the Brown coaching staff.
While we’ve been critical of Providence taking care of the basketball (11.3 turnovers a game), Brown is really bad with taking care of the rock, averaging 13.0 turnovers/game. Providence’s man defense and overall athleticism should force Brown into some uncomfortable situations and lead to points off turnovers. That was a key to success for Providence against URI on Saturday.
What I’m Looking for – Providence
Rotation Crystallizing?
There was a clear shift in minutes played against URI, and I am wondering if this was a Rhode Island specific game plan or a sign of things to come with a healthy Powell.
Against Rhode Island, there was a clear 8 man rotation, with Jamier, Duncan, and Edwards each getting a minimum of 18 minutes off the bench. Hargrove and Pinnis only played 3 and 2 minutes, respectively, so I’m wondering if Powell is going to be the back-up 4 and 5 man moving forward. This will be something to watch against Brown.
What also caught my eye was Jamier playing 23 minutes while Mela only played 11 minutes. I think this was more circumstantial, as Mela seemed to be out of sorts against URI, but I do think Jamier should be playing starter minutes moving forward. I’m not necessarily calling for him to start, as I think Mela is a really valuable piece in the rotation, but Jamier should be playing a minimum of 20 minutes/game. He is a special player, and I don’t think he is as raw as some make him out to be. He has a more advanced game than I anticipated coming out of high school, and the team as a whole plays better when he is in the game.
He also brings a swagger and attitude to the court that Providence has been lacking on its roster.
More time for Jamier, please.
More Post Looks
Oswin received a few more post looks in the second half against URI, and I’m all for it. Providence is going to run into some tough defenses in the Big East, and the Friars need to have an alternative offensive strategy if their normal run and gun offense isn’t clicking. This is a way to unlock another component of this potent offense. Why not use this game to test this out?
Oswin is a raw offensive product still without a refined post game, but I do think you can accelerate his development by force feeding him the ball in games like this one that you should win comfortably. That’s the only way he is going to become a more well-rounded big.
Powell Continuing to Round into Form
We touched upon the importance of his return in the URI recap article and in my rotation section above, but I’m also looking to see if Powell can get back on track from deep. He was billed as a stretch 4 coming in, but that may have been us miscasting him if we’re being honest. Even if you exclude his 18.2% 3 point field goal percentage this year, he is a career 28.9% 3 point shooter. Not exactly lighting it up from deep, but he was 35.8% from deep last year and has incrementally improved in this department each year. Hopefully, Powell can become even a 30-33% 3 point shooter by season’s end, as him being a threat from deep will open up the floor for our driving guards. A stretch 4 further unlocks this offense.
Prediction
BOC: This is a good test for this offense against a strong defense. Providence isn’t its usual offensive self, but still wins comfortably on the back of an above average defensive effort from the Friars. 83 – 67 Providence.