With the in-state rivalry, you can throw records out the window. It is a battle for state supremacy in the Ocean State, and both teams are looking to claim bragging rights.
For the Providence Friars, the game this year is unique for a variety of reasons. Usually, Providence is the heavy favorite, and this game doesn’t do much for resume purposes. It’s perceived as a “must win” because of the rivalry but also because it could potentially be an anvil on their resume with a loss. This year, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
Rhode Island is currently a Top 100 KenPom team (99 overall) and 74 in the NET rankings. Providence, for comparison’s sake, is 71 in KenPom and 115 in the NET.
For Providence, a decisive win at home could actually bolster their metrics along with improve their resume come tournament time. This is the ideal scenario for an in-state rivalry game. This game has significance beyond both teams residing in the same state, and that is simply a fantastic development.
We provide an overview of the Rhode Island Rams team and key players on their team. We’ll then provide a breakdown of what we are looking to see and what Providence needs to do to secure a victory.
Rhode Island Rams Overview
7-2 on Season with wins over Temple, Vermont, Brown, and Yale. Losses to Tulsa and Towson.
Rhode Island has played a strong non-conference schedule before they head into A-10 play, but the Friars will be their toughest test as they have yet to play a high major team. I’m hopeful this plays to the Friar’s advantage, as Providence has clearly tested itself with games against Virginia Tech, Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Florida.
Rhode Island was not predicted to finish high in the Atlantic 10, voted 12th out of 14 teams, but it appears that the voters misevaluated this Rhody squad based on their early season performance thus far.
Jonah Hinton – Leading scorer on the Rams averaging 15.8 points/game and 34.2% from 3. Doesn’t do much else besides scoring. The junior 6’3 guard from Chicago may be a familiar name to Friar fans, as he played for St. Bonaventure last year. Hinton had 7 points, 4 assists, and 3 rebounds for the Bonnies in that win at Mohegan.
Tyler Cochran – Hinton’s running mate in the backcourt who also is from Chicago. The 6’4 guard is in his 6th year in college after stints at the following: Northern Illinois, Ball State, Toledo, and now Rhode Island. Quite the collegiate tour. Cochran actually concerns me more than Hinton, as he averages 14.9 points, compiles 6.4 rebounds, and 3.8 steals. He is the NCAA LEADER in steals per game, with the next closest at 3.5 steals. He is a game-wrecker on both ends and should be the primary scout for the Friars.
Jahmere Tripp – 6’6 Forward averaging 12 and 4.4 rebounds. Friars need to know the scout on Tripp. Through 9 games, he has only taken 23 3’s, but has made 11, meaning he is shooting 47.8% from deep. I presume a Mela, Sellers, Jamier, or Powell will be guarding him. Lazy close-outs on the perimeter will lead to Tripp punishing the Friars.
Keys to the Game/What I’m Looking For
Health of Friars
Will Powell play in this one? He’s sat out several games with an injury after the Colorado game, and it would be nice to get another body in the frontcourt.
Same goes for Daquan Davis. Our backcourt is in a better place due to the emergence of Stefan Vaaks, but it’d be nice to have another ballhandler out there alongside Edwards, Vaaks, and Floyd Jr.
Lastly, Rich Barron. Is he continuing to sit out? It’d be nice to get clarity from English on if he plans to redshirt this year. I know the coach doesn’t have to offer up all his plans to the media and fans, but he can always say the plan is for Rich to redshirt, and we’ll pull that redshirt if we are in dire straits on the roster.
Taking Care of the Basketball
As I mentioned above, Rhody has one of the best perimeter defenders nationally with Cochran on the roster.
In the games that have gone well for the Friars, Providence isn’t reckless with the basketball. In losses, turnovers pile up. In their 4 losses, Providence has compiled 48 turnovers, which comes out to 12 turnovers a game. On the season, they average 10.9 turnovers/game, so I believe the line of demarcation for a win or loss is right around 10 turnovers a game. Any less, they win. 10 or more, they open up the possibility of a loss.
Providence needs to understand who they are going up against with Cochran and prioritize taking care of the basketball.
Shift in Frontcourt Rotation
Hargrove unfortunately hasn’t met expectations, and Pinnis has strung together two games in a row of solid, fundamentally sound basketball. I think you need to flip the order of playing time between these two and see how Pinnis handles being the first big off the bench. He’s earned it with his consistent play over the last two games, and Hargrove isn’t giving you much to push back on this notion.
I’m trying to find subtle tweaks that marginally improve this team. Wholesale changes aren’t necessarily needed at this point, but subtle improvements can go a long way. This may be one.
Know the Scout: Rhody
The Rams are not a great three point shooting team outside of Hinton and Tripp. Those two are the ONLY players on the Rams roster to shoot above 28% from deep. As a team they are shooting 29.4% from deep, good for 314th nationally. That’s horrid.
For Providence, you run Hinton and Tripp off the 3 point line and dare the rest of the Rhode Island team to beat you from deep by sagging off them. Bait them into shooting the deep ball. It makes for an easier scout defensively too.
Dominate the Glass
Providence is a Top 100 team nationally (83 overall) in rebounds a game at 39.4 rebounds/game. Rhode Island, on the other hand, is 256th nationally at 34.9 rebounds/game. Rhode Island does not have a lot of size, and I’d like to see Providence impose its will on the glass.
In the game against an overmatched Fairleigh Dickinson, Providence was outrebounded, which is unacceptable.
There have been too many games this year where Providence has wilted on the glass, and that is a result of a lack of “want-to” by the players. Find your man once the shot goes up, box-out, and go get the ball when it comes off the glass.
Rebounding comes down to who wants it more, and Providence has fallen short on that front too many times this year.
Defense First, Get Out and Run
Providence has the decided offensive advantage, averaging 90.4 points/game to Rhode Island’s 77.2. Providence has the potential to get hot offensively and run the Rams out of the gym.
What will allow them to do this is locking in on defense and getting stops. If Providence can make life difficult on the Rams offensively, Providence can secure the rebound and get out in transition quickly. This is where they are most potent. They can’t do this, however, if they don’t prioritize defense. If Rhode Island is scoring with relative consistency, it puts Providence in a bind as their half-court offense leaves a lot to be desired.
If Providence isn’t in transition, I’d like to see the Friars play some high low ball with Oswin (and Pinnis) to take advantage of the lack of size in the Rhode Island frontcourt. Designing a few plays for the bigs will do a few things: gets the bigs engaged in the game early, lead to more offensive rebounding opportunities, and get their bigs in foul trouble early.
Prediction
BOC: I’d feel much more confident in this game if it wasn’t a rivalry game. English knows he needs this one even if it weren’t an in-state rival. The margin for error for the Friars is razor-thin. I think Providence comes to play in this one and wins 85 – 75.
Crier: Given the way the season has gone probably shouldn’t have as much faith as I do in the Friars but I see them winning this game. The Rams haven’t won in Providence since 2002, that doesn’t change Saturday. PC 80 URI 72