It should be a momentous Saturday evening in Providence. Billy Donovan, the undersized maestro that led Pitino’s Providence squad to the Final Four in 1987, is having his jersey retired at the AMP. With this long overdue celebration, the AMP should be packed to the brim with Friar fans of all ages reminiscing about the incredible Final Four run under Rick Pitino. The stage is set for an incredibly day for the Providence program.
The only issue? Providence is in the midst of a four game losing streak and is welcoming in the Villanova Wildcats who are clawing their way to an NCAA tournament birth under Kyle Neptune. Neptune, for all of the criticism he has received, is undefeated coaching against Kim English and has the superior squad coming into Friartown. Providence is being weighed down with a litany of injuries, with the likelihood they will be without 5 scholarship players due to injury. Jabri-Abdur Rahim and Bryce Hopkins are out for the year, and we are not sure if Wesley Cardet, Corey Floyd Jr., and Christ Essandoko will play.
In the last match-up against Xavier, Providence was without the five aforementioned players and had to turn to walk-ons like Nil Daniels to form some semblance of a rotation and give the starters some time to rest on the bench. It wasn’t pretty.
We preview below what the Friars can do to secure a home win on a day that should be a celebration in Providence.
Avoid the Back-Breaking Scoring Runs
It has been a theme over the past two years that Providence would effectively eliminate their chances in a game by allowing the opposition to go on a historic scoring run and put the game out of reach. Xavier was no different. After starting the game with a three possession lead, Providence allowed Xavier to go on a 22-0 run in the first half to put the game out of reach. We have seen this too many times in the English tenure, and I chalk it up to a lack of set plays and over reliance on the three point shot when things are spiraling.
If Villanova even begins to go on a 5 point or higher scoring run, English needs to have two or three canned half-court play calls in his back pocket that can get them a quality look and easy bucket to stem the tide. The team in its current state is not deep enough to come back from those type of runs from the opposition. It’ll also kill any home court advantage that Providence absolutely should have in what will most likely be the most well attended home game of the year.
Pierre Guard Play Vital
If Providence is going to win, it is because Jayden Pierre and Bensley Joseph play superb basketball. Pierre, in particular, needs to come out of the gates ready to play from the opening tip. His 5 turnovers in the game against Xavier were back-breaking, especially for a veteran guard, and he has had 12 turnovers the last three games. He cannot keep putting an undermanned team in a precarious positions with bad guard play.
If Providence is going to win, Pierre needs to score 15+ with several assists and only 1-2 turnovers. He needs to be the floor general we all expected at the beginning of the year, especially in front of an icon like Billy D.
Oswin: No Foul Trouble
I’m going to keep putting this as a key to the game until he can prove he can stay on the court. He’s too good of a player to be relegated to the bench due to his own silly fouls.
Rotation
I’m hopeful that we get one of Cardet or Essandoko back. Any scholarship bodies help at this juncture, and Providence needs both of these guys back in a big way. Cardet is a great wing defender and can generate his own offense 1:1. That’s currently lacking.
Essandoko has the size needed against a smaller Wildcat frontcourt, even if he hasn’t met expectations this year.
Defensive Improvement Needed
I get that the Providence roster is being held together by duct tape. I get it. But the defensive efforts over the last few games have been pretty abysmal, and defensive output isn’t necessarily a talent thing. The Friars are letting up 84.3 points/game over the last three games, which is frustrating when you think the offense is playing pretty well (all things considered).
If Providence is going to win this one, they’ll have to hold the Wildcats to 75 points or less, in my opinion.
Realistically I don’t like our chances against Villanova unless Eric Dixon has an off night (which I doubt). Essondoko is no asset. He stands around aimlessly and has no decent moves to the rim. I hate being critical about my Friars but at this point in the season I can’t help it. Missing five important players is really hurting us badly but it is what it is. In order to win we need JP and Joseph to have stellar performances, JP to hold on to the rock, Oswin to avoid foul trouble and great defense and rebounding (especially the offensive variety). If all these elements can come into play we have a shot. If not: sayonara on a steel guitar!
Thank you Ernie, Marvin and Billy for letting the Friars have their moment in the sun! Go Friars!