Providence, fresh off a road win in New Jersey against Seton Hall, is looking to cross over the Garden State border and secure another road win in New York. The Providence Friars take on St. John’s Saturday at 12PM in Madison Square Garden.
Providence is looking to settle the score with the Johnnies after St. John’s and Rick Pitino escaped Providence with a 72-70 victory on a buzzer beater. In that game, Providence held a 13 point halftime lead before St. John’s came red-storming back in the 2nd half. They were led by Zuby Ejifor in that one, who went for 19 and 10 and made that game winner. RJ Luis, Kadary Richmond, and Devion Smith all scored in double digits as well.
St. John’s is currently 18-3 overall, 9-1 in conference, and #15 in the nation. With a road game, Providence will be heavy underdogs, but we preview the path forward to a potential Providence upset.
Oswin’s Impact in this One – This game feels like a year ago, but it was only about 40 days ago when Providence originally squared off against the Johnnies. I was shocked to revisit the box score and see that Oswin only played seventeen minutes and did NOT start. In fact, it was Anton Bonke that started. It is true that there are many mini-seasons in a season, and this unique fact from the first game exemplifies that. In this game, Oswin had 2 points and 4 rebounds.
Oswin has come on strong over the last few weeks, and I’m thrilled to see the match-up against Oswin and Ejifor. Ejifor had his way with the Friars in the first one, and I cannot wait to see if Oswin’s development shines through with slowing down Ejifor.
Another interesting stat: Three of the bench players in the first game (Floyd Jr., Mela, and Oswin) are now starting.
Bench Production – In our last two games (and wins), the Friar bench has scored a total of 45 points. This illustrates the depth of this roster, even if we are missing our top player in Bryce Hopkins. As Kim English said postgame against Seton Hall, “we lack nothing”. Providence can win this one with another stint of balanced scoring up and down the roster. In the first match-up, Providence’s bench outscored St. John’s 18 – 7. If we hit the mark of 20 points off the bench, an admitted high mark, I foresee a victory for Providence.
Taking Care of the Basketball – Seton Hall almost won Tuesday night because Providence turned the ball over seemingly every other possession, with 19 turnovers in total. Against St. John’s, Providence turned the ball over 17 times, which led to their second half surge and comeback.
St. John’s is too talented of a team to turn the ball over 15+ times on them. In the first match-up, Providence had 11 more turnovers than they did. Pierre and Joseph combined for 8 total turnovers and have been prone to high turnover numbers all season long. They need to combine for 5 or less turnovers to give Providence a fighting chance.
Relying on Another Off Game Offensively – The thing that concerns me with this match-up, even more so than being on the road, is the fact that we lost to St. John’s despite them going 17% from deep and 42% from the charity stripe. On the year, they shoot 30% from deep, so their struggles are well known. They also shoot 70% from the free throw line.
Thus, Providence may have caught St. John’s on their coldest of shooting nights and still lost. If you think a defeat of a sizable margin occurs, I’d point back to this stat and the fact that Providence didn’t steal one at home when Pitino’s squad played one of their worst games offensively all season.
Health of Cardet Jr. – Providence is going to need him in this one for his defensive efforts and length against Richmond and Luis. He did not play against Seton Hall and played sparingly against Georgetown. Let’s hope he can give it a go because Mela is hitting a mini-freshman wall of sorts, and the tenacious defense of St. John’s may lead to a few turnovers for Ryan.
Too many “ifs” in this one. I am not saying we won’t win but a lot of things must go right for us to beat the Johnnies. We have to play superb defense. Oswin needs to have a great game blocking shots left and right. We need to shoot and score on threes. We need to hold onto the rock like it is made out of gold. We need to defend agressively against Ejifor and make the Johnnies uncomfortable playing in their own Garden. If we can pull out a win it will be one of the most important victories this season. Go Friars!