Things are looking bleak in Friartown after a drubbing at home against Marquette, and things don’t get any easier with a road match-up against Connecticut. Connecticut is #11 in the nation at 11-3 and riding a 7 game winning streak. They had a disastrous showing in Maui, going 0-3 in 3 days, but that clearly was an outlier to the season as Connecticut tries to threepeat as NCAA champions. The Huskies are led by Jersey native Dan Hurley.
This is one of those games where a win by Providence would be one of the more shocking outcomes in quite some time. It’s a road game at Gampel (on campus arena) with Providence likely without its best player in Hopkins and losers of their last three. Providence has zero momentum right now, and you get the sense fans are chalking this one up as a loss already. With that said, that’s why you play the games.
We preview the game below and highlight what Providence needs to do to get back in the winning column.
Getting to Know Connecticut
Connecticut is led by Alex Karaban, the junior wing averaging 17 and 5 and 43% from deep. He’s the perfect Hurley player who makes all the right decisions and is the engine for this Husky team. He’ll never wow you with his individual play, but is the perfect team player that elevates the level of play for his entire team.
If you are trying to find a path to an upset if you are Providence, an injury to 5 star Liam McKneeley means that Connecticut will likely be without their projected one-and-done freshman wing. He is averaging 14 and 6 on the year. Sophomore Jaylin Stewart will see some more time in his absence I’d imagine.
Sophomore Solo Ball has made the freshman to sophomore year leap, averaging 13 points on the year.
As an aside, I’ve pointed out in several blog posts and Twitter threads how English should replicate the roster building strategy of Hurley. Hurley’s roster is almost entirely built through high school recruiting, and he nabs 1-2 portal players an offseason to fill any gaps. Hurley did that this year with Michigan transfer Tarris Reed. The big man is averaging 11 and 8 and is doing what Providence fans thought Christ Essandoko would be doing. Sigh.
Hassan Diarra is another transfer but in his third year at Connecticut (note that Reed, Diarra, and Mahaney all transferred to Connecticut with multiple years of eligibility remaining when they transferred – this is the key). He is a gritty 5th year who leads the team in steals and can get a bucket when necessary.
Keys to Game for Providence
Make Free Throws – Connecticut has a propensity to foul. Providence should get to the line early and needs to be above 70% to have a chance of an upset. This also requires PC to play downhill and attack the hoop and not settle for the three ball. This strategy is something we’ve seen more of recently.
Take Care of Basketball – A lot of the key themes here will be repetitive from past articles, but it’s because Providence consistently does the wrong things. PC needs to keep turnovers to single digits if they want any chance of a win. Connecticut doesn’t have a true point guard like a Newton from prior years, but they take care of the ball incredibly well, averaging only 10 turnovers/game.
Avoid the Deadly Run – We saw it against Marquette in the last game where Providence went up early and then hit a funk offensively. From there, it spiraled out of control to the tune of Marquette going on a 20+ point run. We saw this happen last year at home against Connecticut. If Providence begins to struggle offensively while the Huskies surge a bit, the offense can’t be “make it all back by heaving three’s”. That just makes the run the opposition is on more likely to continue. If this does happen, and I’m sure it will, Providence needs to draw up some looks to attack the rim and force the refs into making a call and Connecticut into making a stop.
BHop’s Status – Frankly, it’s getting annoying having to ponder this entire season if Hopkins will be playing. I don’t anticipate he plays, but who knows at this point. Frustration aside, PC doesn’t have a chance without him available and playing 25+ minutes.
Reward Your Hustle Players – I’d like to see Mela, Barron, Oswin, and Floyd Jr. in the starting line-up. Things haven’t gone well for the Friars, and you need to give minutes to the guys you expect on the roster next year who work hard. All four of the above fit that category.
Most important, play the guys who have some pride in their craft. You want guys who take the loss to Marquette on their home court personally and aren’t accepting of the season to date.
Defend the Perimeter – Connecticut is shooting a blistering 36.9% from 3. Contrast that to Providence’s 33.4%. Providence needs to run Connecticut off the three point line in the half court and find guys like Karaban trailing in transition. He makes a living hitting that secondary break 3 point shot. Providence needs to defend well, but also hope for a cold shooting night for Connecticut.
Prediction
BOC: If Hopkins plays, Connecticut wins by 5. If Hopkins doesn’t play, Connecticut wins 80 – 63.