Providence, hot off a thumping given to the BYU Cougars 83-64, are looking to provide the Rhody Rams with their first loss of the season on Saturday afternoon in Kingston. URI is 8-0 on the season, with Archie Miller leading one of the biggest surprises nationally of this early college basketball season.
Regardless of records and talent level on each roster, this rivalry game is one where you can throw all stats and win-loss records out the window.
For Providence, the importance of this game is clear. Beyond being a state rival, the Friars have given themselves no margin for error due to their poor showing in Atlantis. The Friars need this win to continue to build positive momentum heading into Big East play. Additionally, URI is (as of this writing) a metric darling. A win here for Providence would boost the analytics/metrics and tournament resume for the Friars due to the game being a road game and with URI so significantly outperforming the preseason expectations for this team. That hasn’t been the case recently with this URI team, so this game could be very useful for Providence.
For Rhode Island, the ramifications are obvious. Beat a state rival, stay undefeated on the season, and have a “Big East win” on their resume come March.
Despite being a home game, I think Rhode Island is playing with house money and has nothing to lose. They should play that way too. A loss here doesn’t hurt URI at all besides having bragging rights in the state and no longer being undefeated.
For Providence, the Friars have all the pressure. They can’t drop another non-conference game if they expect to be playing in the NCAA tournament. It’s an unfortunate reality, but a reality none the less.
We breakdown the keys to the game for Providence.
Don’t Totally Succumb to Road Game Environment
We are 9 games in, and this is the first true road game for the Friars. This will be quite a raucous environment for a team’s first road game. Providence needs to do its best to avoid a lot of what ailed the Friars early in the year: careless turnovers. This is where veteran leaders like Bensley Joseph should be invaluable. Pierre can be a bit volatile with the basketball, and the game environment concerns me a bit. I’d ask Joseph to man the PG duties primarily and run the show.
If Providence can keep turnovers to single digits, I like the Friars to win rather comfortably. This game will be tight if the turnovers are in the 15+ range for Providence and lead to easy buckets for the Rams. Transition baskets also lead to more crowd engagement.
Taking care of the basketball is the most important part of this game, in my opinion.
Get Bryce Touches Early
This team goes as Bryce goes, exemplified by the decisive win against BYU. I’d task Hopkins with attacking the basket early and often to get to the line and test the frontcourt of the Rams. He could also get their leading scorer Green in early foul trouble.
The three point shooting on the road can be streaky. A way to hedge against this is getting high quality post touches for Hopkins. He can be the calming presence on the offensive end for Providence.
Defensive Intensity
Providence put the defensive clamps on BYU, holding them to 23 points below their season average. URI is an offensive juggernaut to date, averaging 89.6 points/game. That is good for SEVENTH nationally. Directly ahead of Alabama, Illinois, and North Carolina. No big deal.
I expect PC to frustrate URI defensively. Can they hold them to 70 points or less in this one? The defense passed with flying colors against BYU, but let’s see if the defense carries on the road. The defense somewhat fell off in the Bahamas, so this is something to monitor.
David Green is leading the Rams in scoring at 17 points and 6 rebounds. I’d expect him to see a high dosage of Bryce Hopkins, with Oswin, Cardet, and JAR getting looks as well.
They have superb guard play in Sebastian Thomas and Jaden House. They will test Pierre, Joseph and Floyd Jr. In summary, this is a great test for the PC defense against an explosive URI offense.
URI is a bit loose with the basketball, averaging 11.9 turnovers a game. This is 0.1 higher than PC. While I indicated PC needs to take care of the basketball, the increase in play for URI could be a shock to the system and lead to some sloppy ball-handling. This is another thing to monitor.
Lastly, URI is currently shooting 39.8% from deep. That is good for Top 20 nationally. Providence can’t fall asleep at the wheel fighting through screens or URI will bury them from deep.
In short, Providence may have the superior athletes, but they need to stay completely engaged all game. URI has many ways to beat a team offensively.
Predictions
I’ll be a company man…
Listen to the podcast for our predictions!
I will say after doing a more thorough scout, I’m inclined to reduce my margin of victory for Providence.