It was a holiday tournament to forget. Providence went into the Battle 4 Atlantis ready to prove itself against improved competition from its first 5 games. Instead, Providence is left reeling after three losses in three days. Providence entered the tournament 5-0 and is now 5-3 with a massive BYU game looming on Tuesday evening.
We at the Providence Crier said we’d learn a lot about this team over Thanksgiving, and we certainly did. So, what exactly did we learn?
Providence’s Big Men are not quite ready for Big East Basketball
Coming into this season, I knew the loss of Josh Oduro would be tough to replace; however, I had hopes that a third year big in Essandoko who has produced in the A10, a mountain of a man in Bonke, and blue chip super-athlete in Oswin could be a serviceable trio to man the 5. The sum would be greater than the individual parts is what I told myself.
After three games in Atlantis, the questions and concerns around our 5 spot are absolutely warranted, and you have to wonder if this preseason perceived “strength” of the team is actually its weakest link. I’m guilty of buying into the hype of three 6’10+ guys who each offered something unique to the Friars. Hand up.
Essandoko did not come into Providence physically ready to handle the starting five spot, and that is incredibly disappointing. He was gift wrapped a starting position on a Big East squad and fumbled it away (quite literally) with an apathy towards conditioning it would appear. His lack of an immediate impact is one of the reasons Providence isn’t as far along as the fanbase would like the team to be, in my opinion. We all presumed he’d start and be a 10 and 7 guy from the jump. He’s not anywhere close to that.
Oswin is a pogo stick, but is so raw in all facets of the game and is clearly still learning the nuances of high end basketball. He’s going to be a good one, but is probably a year away from being a true impact player.
Bonke, while a personal favorite, is playing like somebody who picked up basketball a few years ago and hails from a small island in the South Pacific.
The next few weeks of practice are vital. The staff needs to express urgency to the three bigs in speeding up their development because they are mission critical to this team making a tournament. If the development doesn’t happen, get ready to see a heavy dose of small ball with Hopkins manning the 5. That’s fine in spurts, but not long term sustainable.
Tweaks Needed to the Offense
We have been complaining all season (and last season) about the poor offensive production from the Friars. This weekend only caused those grumblings to grow louder. Providence and English want to implement an NBA style offense where the prevalent shot choices are 3’s and lay-ups and dunks with a de-emphasis on mid-range shots. That is fine, and I actually do feel we’ve improved the quality of shooter on our roster, but the problem is we don’t have a back-up plan if shots aren’t falling.
I’m going to copy and paste what I put in the Davidson recap article because I believe it is pertinent here:
I think it is time to question whether the system English and staff are running actually work. The premise of an offense predicated around 4 shooters and a rim running big is great in theory, but not many college teams have that on their roster. It’s an NBA system, and Providence isn’t an NBA team.
I used to want to pull my hair out last year when Floyd Jr. would beat his man off the dribble and then pivot 3-4 times before kicking it out. I (incorrectly, I may add) put the blame on him, speaking to his hesitancies. It became very clear last night to me seeing two other Friars do the same exact thing that the players are taught to dribble drive and try to find an open man on the perimeter for a three. Great idea in theory. Sure.
The issue is that if nobody is open, the ball handler is stuck. What makes it WORSE is nobody is moving without the basketball. No back door cuts, cuts to the rim to get an easy lay-up, etc. It’s all ball watching and hoping that man can beat his guy.
This brand of offense is inherently selfish, and I think it needs to be scrapped. Davidson had 10% of the athletes that Providence does, but took them to the woodshed with precise passing, sharp cuts, and selfless basketball. Providence plays like it’s 5 guys who just met each other for the first time.
The offense was an issue last year, and it was chalked up to English not having his guys. He has his guys now, and the results are worse. That is very concerning as a Friar fan. Time for the staff to tweak the offense.
In the game against Indiana, we saw the same scenario play out, but instead of lingering around the three point line, Floyd Jr. cut to the basket and had an easy dunk. That is something positive to build off of!
I understand that the mid-range analytically is a poor shot compared to a lay-up or three pointer, but it’s time to stuff the analytics into a locker. Providence has the athletes to attack the rim and finish in the paint. There can’t be this hesitancy to shoot if the paint look isn’t “ideal”. It leads to too stagnant of an offense that is easy to defend.
Above all else, the staff needs to emphasize moving without the basketball and being more selfless. There was too much hero ball being played this past weekend to have a consistently successful offense.
Kim English Absolutely Has Improved this Roster from Last Year
It is tough to see it now, but English has without a doubt improved the overall roster when compared to last year. You have to squint to see it during these tough times, but I truly think Providence has more proven entities than they did last year. Devin Carter and Josh Oduro are better than anything currently on the roster (assuming an injured Bryce Hopkins), but Pierre, Cardet, and Floyd Jr. are all players that are going to be impact players in conference play. Last year, it was Oduro and Carter and nobody else. This year, Hopkins will be the leader, but he has many more weapons alongside him than those two did last year. I could see those aforementioned three all averaging double digits by season’s end, with Bensley Joseph potentially the other double digit scorer.
Pierre and Cardet, particularly, strike me as guys who could be a potential all-conference type. They are coming on nicely.
Floyd Jr. may be the most well rounded player on this roster. I need to see him force himself to take the next step as enforcer and tone setter on this team. This team needs some edge to it right now, which brings me to my next point.
Leadership Void
I’ll keep it simple: who is the leader on this team? Does anybody have that answer? The past two years, you said Devin Carter without hesitation. Eddy Croswell was the spiritual leader who set the tone in years past. What he lacked in elite production he made up for with his take no prisoners mentality.
Who is that guy this year? The fact that we don’t have that answer instantaneously shows there is a leadership void. Somebody needs to emerge and claim this as THEIR team.
Early Defensive Efforts Smoke and Mirrors
After five games, Providence was scoring as a top 15 defense nationally across pretty much every metric. After this past weekend, you see that the defensive effort and intensity is there, but I was probably too premature in calling this an elite defensive unit. Do I think they can still get there with Hopkins returning? I do, but this team still needs to iron a lot out defensively.
After 8 games, they are still 32nd in points allowed and 36th in baskets allowed. I think they’ll find themselves as a unanimous Top 25 defensive team by season’s end, and that is enough to be in the tournament.
Get Back to the Basics
We can overanalyze this weekend until we are blue in the face, but the results from this weekend can be pointed at two very obvious things: taking care of the basketball and making your free throws.
Providence on the season is 65% from the charity stripe.
They are currently averaging 12.7 turnovers to 13.7 assists.
These two things lead to losing basketball. They must knock down the gimmes and prioritize taking care of the basketball. Basketball becomes an easy sport when you do those two things right.
This Team Won’t Go Far Without Bryce
This is probably stating the obvious, but this past weekend showed Hopkins is sorely missed. This team needs help in the frontcourt, needs another scoring option, and needs a complement to the three point shooters. Bryce is all the above.
This team will go as far as Bryce can take them. It’s a lot to put on the All-Conference Friar, but that’s why he returned and why the staff re-recruited him so heavily. For better or worse, the outcome of the season falls on Mr. Hopkins.
No pressure.
Your analysis is definitely spot on and your focus was on what we can surely see happening. What it doesn’t point out are the following flaws that need to be ironed out and fast. Why is it that not one of the portal players with loads of experience are not playing up to their passed averages? It is attitude? They’re one and done except for Christ. They don’t listen to Kim and they don’t show any signs of caring. All of them are stone faced when things are going bad. Pierre shows emotions.
As you pointed out, Christ is a mess with conditioning and couple that with him not showing an ounce of aggressive behavior both on defense or offense, to me that, is disrespectful to the coaching staff period.
Joseph had been known more for his defensive prowess yet, I think if you asked any one of the players that he’s guarded from Oklahoma thru Indiana I don’t think any of those guards would have said he’s a good defender. .
Cardet was supposed to be a flat out scorer but he seems to be more of a streak scorer.
What does this all mean, well, Kim , evaluated their ability, brought them in and sold us on that they’re an improvement. As of now, they are still the gang that can’t shoot strait or hit a layup for that matter.
Further, It seems to me that Kim’s decision making regarding playing time is tied to promises he may have made in order to get these players to come to Providence.
Lastly, his use of the bench has no fluidity. Mela and Eli continue to sit and JAR plays far too much.
I’ll finish with this, if and when the Ghost decides its time to play, things could get worse if he, decides that he’s also a shooter. If that happens then, kiss this season goodbye.