Providence is coming off a thrilling upset of the #19 Creighton Bluejays and travel to Indiana to take on the surprising Butler Bulldogs. Both teams are squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble, coming in each at 15-8 and 6-6. There is still plenty of basketball left to be played, but one of the final 68 spots of the NCAA tournament may very well be decided between these two Big East Squads. Along with their records being identical, their metrics are shockingly similar: Butler 49 in KenPom, Providence 53. Butler 51 in NET, Providence 56. If Providence were to secure a regular season sweep of Butler, that will carry significant weight come Selection Sunday.
Providence squeaked by Butler in overtime in their match-up in Providence, and Butler is seeking to even the score at Hinkle. Thad Matta completely reshaped his roster this past offseason. Suffice to say, Butler has been one of the surprises of the Big East this season. Butler is led by the quartet of transfers in Pierre Brooks, Jahmyl Telfort, Posh Alexander, and DJ Davis. These four all average double figures in points and lead a shockingly explosive offense, with Butler averaging 80.7 points/game. This is 0.2 points below the defending national champion Huskies and 0.1 points below Creighton.
We detail below what the Friars need to do to grab a road victory and further solidify their NCAA resume. The end goal for Kim English and the Friars this regular season should be 11 wins minimum in conference before Big East Tournament play. A road win here gets them one closer to 11 games and provides another Q1 victory for the Friars, a necessity with Bryce Hopkins out. This game tilts the likelihood of an NCAA birth heavily in the favor of the Friars with a victory.
Get Oduro Started Early – Josh Oduro is playing at an All-Big East First Teamer level. As we discussed on our latest podcast, Oduro is averaging 21 points/game over his last 7 games. Oduro has proven his mettle with dominant showings against Kalkbrenner and Clingan to the tune of 32 and 20 points, respectively. Butler is a guard dominant team. They don’t have a big that can match Oduro, and I think Matta knows that. In the first match-up, Oduro had 19 points and 14 rebounds. If Providence is going to steal a win here, they are going to win by Oduro being utterly dominant in this one. Providence getting into a track meet with the Butler guards isn’t a recipe for success, in my opinion.
I expect Butler to double Oduro on his post touches, which leads to my next point.
Knock Down the Open Shot – The role players are going to get quality three point looks, much like they did against Creighton and Villanova. The difference? Against Creighton they made them (11 makes at 42.3% clip). Against Villanova they did not (7 makes at 21.2% clip). Providence shot 33 three pointers against Butler in the first match-up, making 12. I expect Butler to clog the paint and force the Friars to beat them from the perimeter. It will come down to Gaines, Pierre, Barron, and Floyd Jr. making the majority of their open looks. If they do that, I expect a Friar victory.
Telfort Big Game Incoming? While Bryce Hopkins struggled offensively in the first match-up, he and Carter did an excellent job of limiting big bodied wing Telfort. With Hopkins not available, I could see Matta calling isolation post-ups against Carter, Floyd Jr., and Gaines. Butler is going to be a personnel nightmare problem for Providence due to the number of quality guards and wings they have. Floyd Jr. is going to be counted on immensely to help out with Telfort and Brooks. Same goes for Gaines. This is a gut-check game defensively for the Friars.
Not only do they have size at the wings, they can also shoot the heck out of the ball. They are second in the Big East at making 36% from 3. Pierre needs to make life difficult on Davis and cannot give up so many open looks like he did against Creighton and Ashworth.
Devin Carter Health – Against Villanova, you could see Carter had lingering injuries from the UConn game. That carried over to Creighton, but he willed himself to play through it on the way to victory. Post game, you could see him limping across the court to the locker room. He’s struggling physically right now.
Carter is banged up, no question. He is not going to be 100% for the rest of the season. Kim English needs to be wise with how he buys Carter time on the bench with official television timeouts.
His health is going to be something to monitor through season’s end, unfortunately. The fortunate thing is Carter has no quit in him and doesn’t understand the meaning of succumbing to these lingering injuries by taking a game or two off. Carter leaves it on the court every game. He’s a foxhole guy, through and through.
And hopefully Josh O’Duro can keep focused as his girlfriend is due on Saturday…. Yikes what a day it could be for Josh with a win @ Butler and the birth of his son. Either way, good luck Josh, have a day!!!!
(It’s actually his wife not his gf) but yes was thinking the same! Thinking of him, must be a lot of pressure