Providence is coming off a long and hard fought game (did I mention how long the game was?) against the #1 Connecticut Huskies. It was a physical game that surely has the Friar players appreciating the 4 day rest before they head to Philadelphia Sunday to play the Villanova Wildcats at Wells Fargo. Villanova is a shell of its former self under Jay Wright, standing at 11-10 with rumors beginning to circulate about removal of head coach Kyle Neptune midway through his second year coaching.
The expectations for Villanova preseason were a return to the upper echelon of the Big East and challenging Connecticut and Marquette for the title. Their rumored war chest of NIL funds (apparently Top 5 nationally) led to them landing a bevy of high quality transfers in Friar familiar name Tyler Burton, Washington State transfer TJ Bamba, Kentucky transfer Lance Ware, and Maryland transfer Hakim Hart.
They were also returning the last vestiges of the Wright era in Justin Moore and Eric Dixon. Layer on top of that the return of sophomore point guard Mark Armstrong, whose career trajectory reminds me similarly of our own Jayden Pierre. Optimism was high on the Main Line.
In short, Villanova has fallen flat on its face despite an abundance of talent that is also veteran laden. There are no excuses for how the Wildcats are performing currently. If there was a time to get a road win in the Big East, this is the time for the Friars.
We break down how Providence can secure a road win.
Stifling Defense – In watching Villanova, they seem to struggle with ball pressure and don’t really have many adequate ballhandlers to get them out of said ball pressure. Villanova is last in the Big East in assists/game at 12.3 assists.
Even with the Hopkins loss, Providence has been stellar with their on-ball defense. They are currently Top 8 in KenPom defensive efficiency. I’d like to see Providence hound the Nova guards and make life difficult for them for 40 minutes. I can see that press style of defense leading to a few easy turnovers and transition baskets.
Another Big Night for Oduro? Oduro shined in the match-up against Connecticut. I never thought I’d type these words, but he had his way with Donovan Clingan. The only thing that slowed him down in Storrs was the frequent whistle of the referees.
This will be one of the few games where Josh Oduro has a size advantage over his foe, with him being matched against Eric Dixon. Dixon is a bully of a post player. What he lacks in height he makes up for in post moves, a soft perimeter touch, and general strength. Oduro needs to avoid biting on Dixon’s methodical pump fakes and getting in foul trouble in this one, while also taking advantage of his height and size advantage. I could see a 20 – 10 night for Oduro if he doesn’t get himself saddled on the bench.
Conversely, Oduro needs to be aware that Dixon can hit the deep shot and be ready to contest that. Dixon has the ability to take over games if you let him. This match-up needs to be played to a draw if PC wants to win this road game.
Guard the Three – This ties in closely with my first bullet point. If Villanova is to win this one, it is from deep. The Wildcats have 6 players shooting over 30% from deep. For perspective, Providence has 4 (5 if you count Castro, which I wouldn’t due to sample size). If Providence can play tight man defense and force Villanova to put the ball on the ground, it plays right into the Friar defensive strategy.
Corey Floyd Jr. Emergence – I want to see CFJr. carry over his performance against Connecticut into this one. He has elite athleticism and needs to exploit that more in the open court and on the glass. Floyd Jr. has a chance to fully cement himself as a starter and cannot have a regression game where he is passive and unsure of himself. The time is now for Corey to become another scoring cog for the Friars while maintaining his effort on the defensive end. It was good to see Floyd Jr. chirp a little bit too in the last one. We need more of that.
Providence Out in Transition – In the watch of the Connecticut game, my eyes opened wide when I heard English say to his team in the huddle about the #1 Huskies, “They can’t guard us in transition”. That is genuine faith in your squad if I’ve ever heard it.
Providence needs to continue to get defensive stops because they are deadly in the open court. Whether it is Carter finishing in transition or finding Gaines for a corner 3, Providence is at its best when running up and down. I hope they employ that in this game, as I’m sure Villanova will look to be methodical as they are prone to do. Villanova only leads DePaul and Georgetown in points per game.
Make Your Damn Free Throws – Enough said!
Prediction
BOC: I was oh so close in my Connecticut prediction. I see this one as 73 – 70 Providence.
Crier: 75-70 PC
I’m not overly confident about tonight v Nova. We will win if: we make free throws, we keep TO’s down, Pierre holds on to the rock, Gaines gets hot shooting treys, Corey Floyd Jr. plays like he has been playing lately, Barron gets alot of minutes and Carter and Oduro play their usual great games. Also I am confident we will play our usual very good defense making Dixon, Moore and Company uncomfortable. My score prediction if the above happens: PC 81 Villanova 69. Go Friars!