Providence is currently on a three game losing streak and falling rapidly behind in the Big East standings. With the loss of Bryce Hopkins, Providence has dropped games to Seton Hall, Creighton, and St. John’s. If the season were to end today, Providence would still be squarely in the NCAA tournament due to their early season resume, but these are the types of games that Providence absolutely has to win if they want to ensure a bid to March Madness. Xavier travels to Providence to take on the Friars, sitting at 7-8 and 1-3 in the Big East.
The Xavier story is similar to Providence’s in that the season was derailed by season ending injuries. The Musketeers have been without All Conference forward Zach Freemantle, as well as do everything big man Jerome Hunter. Those two last year combined for 23 points and 12 rebounds. While nobody will confuse their impact with Bryce Hopkins, Xavier is crippled by the injuries to these two forwards on top of Jack Nunge leaving. It’s a rebuilding and retooling season for Coach Sean Miller.
Despite all that adversity, Xavier has played tough all season. The narrative all season has been close losses, losing to Houston by 6, UConn by 5, Villanova by 1. The Musketeers are led by an elite coach in Sean Miller and will come into this game hungry and ready to get a road win. Providence needs a win in the worst way to restore confidence and show that they can be a successful team post Bryce Hopkins. This game has the makings of being a physical street fight with neither team giving an inch and playing with incredible urgency.
We break down the game below and what the Friars need to do to secure a victory.
Lock Down Quincy Olivari – In a tough season, Olivari has been a bright light. The super senior who transferred over from Rice is currently averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, and is 41% from 3. If Xavier has any shot of pulling off the road win (I hate that I can’t even say upset at this point), they need Quincy to go off. It’s worth noting Olivari is the Big East’s leading scorer currently. What a great story for him coming over from Rice.
It will be interesting to see who English assigns to guard Quincy. I presume it will be Devin Carter, the all-world two way guard, but I can also see Pierre and Dual getting a shot at him too.
Desmond Claude, Know the Assignment – Claude has taken on more responsibility this year as a producer and leader. One of the few holdovers from last year’s squad, Claude is averaging 15 a game. His 3 point shooting, however, leaves a lot to be desired at 25%. Whomever is guarding him of the 3 aforementioned players above needs to understand that Claude’s desire is to attack downhill rather than settling for the deep ball.
Pierre’s Continued Growth – If Providence is going to find a way to make a run this year, it will be because Jayden Pierre has made the proverbial sophomore leap and is a legitimate scoring option alongside Carter and Oduro. Pierre has played well these past two games, averaging 13.5 points.
Carter can score 20+ a night, no question. But Providence’s success hinges on contributors outside of Devin Carter. Providence needs at least 3 other players to be pouring in double figures consistently alongside Devin, and I think Pierre can emerge as one of those consistent players.
Rotation Changes – I believe it is in the best interest of the team to put Garwey Dual in the starting line-up alongside Pierre. Corey Floyd Jr. had his chance to solidify his spot in the line-up, and he unfortunately wasn’t able to seize the opportunity these past two games. For now, it is time to bring the young freshman along and ask of him more than they have. He showed signs of growth against St. John’s, scoring a few buckets and being more vocal in the huddles. With a team that is struggling offensively, having Dual play alongside Pierre may be the spark the team needs.
Regarding Floyd Jr., don’t give up on him. He has shown to be a hard working, physical player, and he’ll win us a ballgame or two before the season is up. He just needs a re-set and coming off the bench may help him get his mind right.
Oduro Bounceback – As we mentioned on the podcast and in the St. John’s recap article, I don’t know if there is anybody that has been struggling more since the Hopkins injury since Josh Oduro. In the past two games since BHop was injured, Josh has gone just 6-25 from the floor.
On top of that, I believe he’s dealing with an ankle injury that is limiting him, but he is still getting quality looks and not finishing like he had been earlier in the year. I’m hoping that not facing Soriano and Kalkbrenner will do wonders for him getting back into form.
Prediction
BOC: I expect this one to be an ugly one. Get a win any way possible. Providence gets back on track 68-65.
Crier: The Friars are going to get back to their winning ways. PC 77 Xavier 68