The Providence Friars stand at 4-1 after an arduous three game stretch against Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Georgia. After seeing the team up close and live over the weekend in the Baha Mar Classic, I thought I’d provide some of my broader thoughts on the team as they work their way through non-conference play.
In short, I’m doubling down on my prediction that this is a second weekend NCAA team. The pieces are in place.
The Providence Friars are 4-1 with arguably their “best” player slumping in Bryce Hopkins. That’s a great sign.
It seems the transition from Cooley to English has been a more difficult process than Friar fans originally anticipated for Bryce Hopkins.
The good with Bryce:
- Leads the team in rebounds at 8.7 boards/game
- Leads in minutes played at 35.2 minutes/game.
- Second on the team behind Devin Carter in scoring at 13.6.
The bad (to date) with Bryce:
- Second to last in FG% at 36.3%
- Second to last in 3 point FG% at 14.3%
- Tied for first in turnovers at 3.6/game
Despite all of this, Providence has built an impressive non-conference resume already. Wisconsin is currently 21 in KenPom and just throttled the Cavaliers of Virginia. The Kansas State loss doesn’t look terrible with them at 47. Georgia is sneakily looking like a nice win, especially on a neutral court, at 85.
PC has the chance to go 9-2 or 10-1 heading into the Big East, which is exactly what Friar fans have hoped for. At 10-1, they are at worst receiving votes for the AP Top 25 or ranked in the Top 25 with an opening home game against a Top 5 nationally ranked squad in Marquette. Providence can build a damn impressive resume before the calendar even turns to 2024. What a shocking change from the Cooley teams of old where a miraculous February run is needed to even have a sniff at the NCAA tournament.
Based off last year, we know that Bryce is going to round into form sooner rather than later. It’s just a matter of when, not if. Does anybody expect those negative stats to carry forward? I don’t. His shots will begin to drop, as it is confounding how many missed lay-ups he has. Once things revert to the mean, Providence will become that much more well-rounded offensively.
This is a coach’s dream where their squad has so much to improve upon and still have a strong record despite the best player struggling relative to his standards. BHop just needs to stop pressing and play ball.
The Depth is There…If This Team Stays Healthy
Providence has a very strong 8 man rotation right now, but are really reliant on staying healthy at the Lead Guard and Center position. As we saw in the Bahamas, a Pierre injury limits what this team can do offensively and in terms of minimizing turnovers. Dual can be the point guard, but thrusting him into the starting lead spot for 30 minutes/game in the Big East is a tall task for a true freshman. Corey Floyd Jr. did yeoman’s work against Georgia, but he is better playing off ball. Providence needs to let Pierre get healthy so he can take the mantle of starting PG. If there is a silver lining, it’s that Pierre has played so well that there is no question who the starting point guard is. It wasn’t long ago that people were questioning the talent at point guard. Those questions have been dismissed.
Castro has played really well at the back-up 5, and that is a sight for sore eyes. His athleticism jumps off the page. Some of the rebounds he secured in the Bahamas defied physics. He can really leap.
Oduro has exceeded my expectations (maybe my expectations should have been higher given all he has accomplished already in college), and his defense has been a pleasant surprise. I think an Oduro/Castro frontcourt will hold up throughout the rest of the year, but Friar fans need Oduro to stay healthy if they want to reach their ceiling.
Similar to Pierre, the wheels likely fall off if Oduro goes down. It forces English to have a patchwork rotation with younger players probably getting more time than they are ready for.
The Home Court Advantage is Here to Stay
The Bahamas showed me that the home court advantage that has been so commonly associated with the Providence program isn’t going away anytime soon. In fact, it may be more of an advantage as the Providence community has wrapped its arms around English and fully embraced the new team and staff. Everybody knows how important it is to defend home court in conference play, and I think the crowd is going to will this team to a lot of home victories. The AMP is going to be as difficult as ever for a team to come in and get a road win.
I can’t say enough times just how thoroughly impressed I was with the Friar fanbase at Baha Mar. It was a total zoo.
The Garwey Dual Hype is Warranted
Rarely does a freshman meet high expectations, let alone exceed them. Through 5 games, Garwey has exceeded the lofty expectations thrust upon him. Dual is a true two way terror. He is averaging a shade under 2 blocks/game and 1 steal/game.
What has shocked me the most is his three point field goal percentage at 55.6%. If Dual can be a 40% three point field goal shooter (I’d even settle for 35%), I think we should all enjoy his one year at Providence College. The kid is special.
This May Be the Most Impressive Defensive Team I’ve Seen as a Friar Fan
The Friars are currently in the Top 25 in KenPom on Defensive Efficiency. I thought this Friar team defense was legitimate, but had my concerns if it was smoke and mirrors. I then saw them in person…
My oh my was this defense impressive. They have length everywhere and are uber athletic. They absolutely SWARM on the perimeter and gang rebound with a tenacity that basketball purists dream about.
If there is a flaw with the defense, it is that they are too aggressive in man to man defense because they expect to get so many steals and blocks (see Tylor Perry and Devin Carter).
I think this defense will carry all year long and be a constant Top 40 defense. That carries you to the Big Dance even on off nights offensively.
Ticket Gaines = Ultimate Glue Guy
We have our next Justin Minaya in Ticket Gaines. Gaines does all of the “little things” that make him so appealing to Friar fans. He hits the ground for loose balls, leads the team with encouragement, and plays stingy defense. I thought the strip of the Kansas State player at the end of regulation would lead to a game winner, and I think we’re going to see a few of those types of winning plays throughout the season. When Providence landed Gaines, he was perceived as a depth piece portal win, but Kim English was quick to mention just how much Friar fans would embrace Gaines. We now know why.
On top of the gritty factor, he’s a good rebounder for his size at 4.6 rebounds/game. He is also starting, which I think was a surprise. We haven’t seen Fernandez yet, but English is 2 for 2 with Oduro and Gaines.
Summary
This team is such a joy to watch. They play hard on both ends, are athletic as any team in recent memory, and seem to love playing for the name on the front of their jerseys. There are no apparent egos on this team either.
Don’t take this team for granted, Friar fans. You don’t get these type of squads very often.
Leave a Reply