The Providence Crier Recruiting Feature: Recruiting Rankings Matter – Part 1 (7/10/24 Update with 2024-2025 Roster Comparison)

Anybody who is even vaguely familiar with me knows that I am a fanatic with recruiting and am a firm believer that recruiting rankings are unequivocally directly correlated to a team’s success. When I use the phrase “recruiting rankings matter”, what I am implying is that the more higher ranked players a team has on their roster, the more likely that team will have success. Conversely, the lower ranked players and teams, on average, tend to underproduce relative to their peers that are more highly ranked.

For those that don’t believe in the validity of recruiting rankings, they almost always point to the “diamonds in the rough” narrative. This can be defined as those players who were unranked or lowly ranked who became stars in college basketball. PC fans will point specifically to Bryce Cotton as proof that the recruiting services aren’t good indicators of individual production and success.

My response to that has a couple layers. Yes, the recruiting services aren’t perfect and an exact science. There are going to be countless stories of them missing on the Bryce Cottons of the world; however, players like Cotton are the outliers to the norm.

For every Bryce, there are 100x the amount of players that are similarly ranked and don’t produce anywhere close to the level of Cotton. You just happen to hear more about these underdog stories than when the rankings work correctly because that is just human nature. Quadree Smith, Kris Monroe, Ricky Council II, Lee Goldsborough, etc. The list goes on.

To further reiterate the point, I would much rather have a team of 13 four and five star recruits on a roster than 13 players ranked similarly to where Bryce Cotton was. Yes, maybe one or two of those 13 vastly outperform their ranking like a Bryce Cotton did, but the reality is most will not. The four and five star team will beat that lower ranked team the vast majority of the time.

With all that said, I’m not opposed to taking these diamond in the rough players. A coach has to trust his evaluation rather than lazily recruiting a list of Top 100 players. If he is passionate about a player, irrespective of ranking, go get him. It is just more likely that a team built around Top 100 recruits will do better than one that is built around Top 300 recruits, for instance.

Rich Barron is a perfect example of trusting your evaluation skills. Barron was unranked yet made the All-Freshman team for the Big East. This is the staff trusting themselves despite what the recruiting services say about a player. He vastly outperformed many of his freshman peers who were ranked higher than him.

Stephon Castle, for what it is worth, was the highest ranked freshman coming into the Big East last year and won Big East Freshman of the Year. I don’t think that is an accident. The higher the ranking of the player, the higher the ceiling. It’s that simple.

A development over the years has been the passing of the free waiver for college transfers. This, in my opinion, has leveled the playing field for teams that may not land the blue chip talent at a frequency like the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world do out of high school. Schools like Providence have leaned on the transfer portal to bridge the talent differential gap by landing veteran, proven college players. Even if these transfers weren’t highly touted out of high school, they come in experienced, physically developed, and are often immediate contributors. NC State in the latest Final Four is the perfect example of building your team through the transfer portal because you get veteran collegiate players who have years of experience playing at that level.

Even still, I’d prefer a a coaching staff and program to be built around landing Top 100 high school recruits. The transfer portal can serve as a gap-filler for filling holes on your existing roster. I’m a big believer in culture, and it is tougher to get players to adopt to a program’s culture if they are only at the school for an abridged period of time.

All of that background leads me to the intent of this article. Providence, in short, has drastically increased its talent level on its roster over the past couple years. I was extremely bullish on this past year’s team due to the returning production (Hopkins, Carter, Oduro), as well as the raw talent level exemplified by the recruiting services (BHop, Carter, Dual, Floyd Jr, etc.). When your team has high end talent combined with returning production that also happens to be highly ranked coming out of high school, that is a recipe for postseason success. The issue that Kim English faced this year was this team had star power, but little proven depth beyond the three stars. When Hopkins went down with injury, the lack of talent and depth exposed the Friars. The injury made this team look eerily similar to many of Cooley’s squads that had 1-2 All Conference type players, but a remaining roster that was on the lower end of the Big East talent scale.

Kim English has remedied this issue this offseason via commitments from blue chip high school recruits and bringing in highly ranked players via the transfer portal. He now has a roster that is both laden with experience and talent. The numbers below will lay this out nicely.

What I wanted to do in Part 1 of this recruiting article is analyze this current Providence Friar team and their individual and aggregate team recruiting rankings. I’ll then compare it to all NCAA tournament teams in the Ed Cooley era (including the COVID squad). It tells a pretty interesting story on the talent level of this year’s squad compared to past NCAA tournament and Big East Champion teams. It will also further illustrate why I’m so optimistic about this team.

Without further ado, the analysis below…

Methodology: I used the 247 Composite Ranking, which weights and blends the rankings of 247, Rivals, and ESPN (for those that don’t follow recruiting, these three companies each have their own individual recruiting rankings). By averaging the rankings, it takes a consensus view on a player from the industry. This increases the likelihood that recruiting services won’t misevaluate or “miss” on a player. This occurrence will still inevitably happen, but the Composite is a good way to find the industry view of a player from several different sources.

If a player wasn’t ranked, I gave them an objective 400 overall individual ranking and 2 star. For those that don’t follow recruiting, the more stars that you have, with 5 being the highest, means you are a more highly ranked recruit. 5 stars are ranked higher than 4, 4 higher than 3, etc.

I chose 400 and 2 stars, as I’ve seen 3 stars when doing my research ranked in the high 300’s. Thus, I used 400 and a 2 star across the board for all unranked players.

Current Roster to Date – Providence Friars 2024 – 2025

Player247 Composite# of Stars
Jayden Pierre1393
Justyn Fernandez1503
Rich Barron4002
Corey Floyd Jr.934
Bryce Hopkins394
Eli DeLaurier2163
Ryan Mela2293
Wesley Cardet Jr.1084
Jabri Adur Rahim384
Bensley Joseph1064
Anton Bonke4002
Christ Essandoko2233
Oswin Erhunmwunse924
Average With Oswin171.773.31
Top 100 Players4
Top 50 Players2

You’ve seen this Providence team be in early Top 25 rankings, and there is merit to that. Providence has not only added crucial players in the portal, but said players were, for the most part, all highly ranked recruits out of high school. When you can add veterans to a roster that were also highly ranked coming out of high school, it’s a recipe for success. Last year, Dual was the highest ranked player on the roster, but he was a raw freshman. This year, the four highest ranked players are a true freshman, senior, senior, and redshirt junior. The starting roster will likely consist of the following players by eligibility year: Junior, Senior, Senior, Senior, Redshirt Sophomore. That’s an old starting line-up, which I’m a fan of.

With Providence adding Oswin Erhunmwunse to the 2024 roster, the class ranking of 171.77 is the second highest ranked roster of the English AND Cooley era, with the 2014-2015 team being the only team ranked higher at an average ranking of 155. As I discussed below, that 2014-2015 underperformed in the NCAA’s. They should have been a second weekend type team, but fell flat in the first round as a 6 seed. That 2014 team had 4 Top 100 players much like this one, but only one top 50 player. This team has 2 Top 50 ranked players. This team has both high end talent AND depth. Cooley normally had one or the other, but not both.

There is reason to be very optimistic about the Friars in 2024-2025, and the numbers above show why.

Providence Friars 2023-2024

Player247 Composite Ranking# of Stars
Davonte Gaines2163
Jayden Pierre1393
Donovan Santoro4002
Garwey Dual384
Justyn Fernandez1503
Rich Barron4002
Josh Oduro4002
Corey Floyd Jr934
Devin Carter864
Bryce Hopkins394
Rafael Castro1343
Eli DeLaurier2163
AVERAGE192.583.05
AVERAGE W/Out Hopkins206.553.00
Top 100 Recruits4
Top 50 Recruits2

There are a couple things that stand out when analyzing this past year’s roster. For one, the 4 Top 100 recruits ties any team in the Cooley era as the most amount of Top 100 recruits on a Providence roster at a given time. The 2 Top 50 recruits also tie any other team in the Cooley era as the most amount of Top 50 recruits on a Providence roster.

This gave a glimpse of what the “floor” was for this team, assuming good health. This team had talent level that we aren’t used to regularly seeing in Providence, but it was contingent on maintaining a clean bill of health, which obviously didn’t transpire.

The 192.58 average ranking for the roster is the third highest ranking of a Friar roster that has made the NCAA tournament since Ed Cooley became coach. The 2014-2015 roster and 2022-2023 rosters are the only teams that had a better average individual ranking per player. We’ll analyze those teams below, but anybody who follows the Friars know that the 2014-2015 team should have advanced well beyond the first round given their 6 seed ranking. The 2022-2023 team was a Top 25 team for the vast majority of the season before extracurriculars torpedoed the season.

Excluding Bryce Hopkins, this team was relatively average from a star ranking perspective when comparing the team to past Cooley squads. From 2013 on, there were 5 teams with a better star ranking than last year when removing Hopkins. While I think they should have been one of the last four in the NCAA tournament, the roster composition was incredibly similar to all of Cooley’s squads that just barely snuck into the NCAA tournament.

The issue with last year’s roster was a pretty noticeable disparity in high end Top 100 talent and “diamonds in the rough”. Donovan Santoro, Rich Barron, and Josh Oduro drag the average individual ranking down, but Oduro is a perfect example of the recruiting services absolutely missing on a player. Rich Barron overacheived his ranking, while the vast majority of the lower ranked players were complete non-factors. That is fine if your starting five is healthy. We saw things begin to fall apart once Hopkins went down.

We’ll look back on last year as the What If year. When you have two of your most highly ranked players also being the most productive on your roster in Devin Carter and Bryce Hopkins, that’s a special combination. The way things were trending last year were a Top 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. What could have been…

The good thing is that English realized quickly (see UConn post game comments) that your stars are only as good as the rest of the team around them. You need to surround your star players with talent that can contribute. That wasn’t the case last year, for one reason or another. He appears to have remedied that this offseason.

Providence 2022 – 2023 Roster: #11 Seed, First Round Loss in NCAA Tournament

Player 247 Composite Ranking# of Stars
Jayden Pierre1393
Corey Floyd Jr.934
Devin Carter864
Bryce Hopkins394
Rafael Castro1343
Jared Bynum3663
Ed Croswell4002
Alyn Breed3593
Quante Berry2473
Noah Locke804
Clifton Moore1513
AVERAGE190.363.27
Top 100 Recruits4
Top 50 Recruits1

You can see the ranking average is slightly better than this year’s team. Do I expect the 2023-2024 to perform worse than last year’s team? Yes and no.

While Providence was ultimately one of the last ones in the NCAA tournament and were knocked out in the first round, let us not forget that this Friar squad came out to a scorching start last year. The majority of the year they were ranked in the Top 25 and were well positioned to be a 5-7 seed in the NCAA tournament before the end of the year flameout. Inclusive of the NCAA tournament, they were losers of their last four games. We’ll call that the Cooley rumors effect, as we all remember how this team fell apart in the final innings of the season.

Don’t let the late season collapse obscure that this was one of the best teams in college basketball all year long. Last year’s performance should encourage PC fans this year that a very good NCAA seed is a possibility.

Imagine how last year’s team would do with a Garwey Dual? That is this year’s team with more experience and talent. Bryce Hopkins and Devin Carter are another year older with another year of college basketball under their belt. Swap Croswell and Oduro, and I think this year’s team got the better of that trade (with all due respect to Eddy Croswell, who gave his heart and soul and deserved better from his head coach last year). I’ll take a sophomore Jayden Pierre over last year’s Jared Bynum too. Ticket Gaines may not be the sharpshooter that Noah Locke is, but he is a more complete player and a much more active defender. I’ll take Gaines in that trade too.

This all further reiterates that Friar fans should be extremely optimistic about this year, in my opinion.

Providence 2021 – 2022 Roster: Sweet 16 Team

Player247 Composite# of Stars
Nate Watson1034
Al Durham2293
Mattheus Case4002
Jared Bynum3663
Ed Croswell4002
AJ Reeves484
Noah Horchler4002
Justin Minaya4002
Brycen Goodine974
Legend Geeter2723
Rafael Castro1343
Alyn Breed3593
AVERAGE267.332.92
Top 100 Recruits2
Top 50 Recruits 1

At initial glance, this team and the fact they were the furthest team to advance in the Cooley era, all while having one of the lowest average team rankings by recruits under Cooley, initially delegitimizes the point I’ve been trying to make. When digging a bit further, you realize this team is the definition of an “outlier” squad.

If you recall, this team’s starting line-up was one of the oldest teams in college basketball and was a direct beneficiary of the COVID rule that was put in place. This rule allowed for an extra year of eligibility for all of the NCAA athletes who competed in 2020 when COVID cut the year short. I’m not discrediting this team, as they are arguably one of my favorite Friar teams in history, but am calling it like I see it.

Providence benefited from this rule by having an abundance of players that would have otherwise already used up all of their eligibility if they played college basketball at any other point in time. The following players wouldn’t have been on the roster if this COVID rule wasn’t enacted: Nate Watson, Al Durham, Justin Minaya (*may have received injury waiver from sophomore year at South Carolina*). It is harrowing to think about what this team would have been without this trio.

Even with making all these points to play devil’s advocate to my theory, Nate Watson was one of the highest rated recruits on this roster and ended up being one of the more productive big men in Providence history. It shows that landing these elite recruits matter.

Providence 2019 – 2020 Team: COVID Year

Player247 Composite Ranking# of Stars
Nate Watson1034
Jared Bynum3663
AJ Reeves484
Greg Gant674
Kris Monroe3203
David Duke Jr. 474
Maliek White1214
Jimmy Nichols Jr. 1913
Alpha Diallo1144
Luwane Pipkins2403
Kalif Young3963
Noah Horchler4502
Emmitt Holt 2633
AVERAGE205.853.38
Top 100 Recruits3
Top 50 Recruits2

This team had a mix of high end recruiting talent and veteran production. By the end of this season, Providence was THE hottest team in college basketball, and I think all Providence fans are left wondering what would have happened if they played an NCAA tournament. Alas, COVID had other ideas.

This team epitomizes how to properly balance high school talent with proven transfer portal talent. Elite programs every year land a few blue chip high school recruits that have an abundance of raw talent and pair them alongside a few ready-made college transfers, regardless of what they were ranked coming out of high school.

This team was the perfect example of that, with Cooley developing 4 star talents in White, Diallo, Watson, Duke, Reeves and combining them with an already productive college transfers in Luwane Pipkins. It took awhile for this marriage to work, but it ended up being a perfect synergy come January and February.

When looking at this team and the Sweet 16 squad, it becomes clear to me that there is no singular way to become a successful college basketball team. The best bet is recruiting elite talent out of high school and hoping that talent hits. If for some reason you have gaps on your roster due to players transferring out, missed evaluations of high school recruits, etc., you should fill those gaps with college ready transfers. Relying exclusively on high school recruits or the transfer portal isn’t a sound strategy for the long term health of a program, in my opinion.

Providence 2017 – 2018 First Round Loss

Player247 Composite# of Stars
Nate Watson1034
Maliek White1214
Alpha Diallo1144
Kalif Young3963
Emmit Holt2633
Makai Ashton Langford404
Dajour Dickens1413
Rodney Bullock 1563
Jalen Lindsey774
Kyron Cartwright2683
Drew Edwards2863
Isaiah Jackson 3863
AVERAGE195.923.42
Top 100 Recruits2
Top 50 Recruits1

This was a team that didn’t necessarily have a lot of high end talent (see the number of Top 100 and Top 50 recruits referenced above), but had a ton of players right on the cusp of being Top 100 in Nate Watson, Maliek White, Alpha Diallo, and Rodney Bullock. Thus, it is no surprise that this team was a tournament team, but had a cap on its ceiling due to the lack of elite talent.

Providence 2016 – 2017 – First Four Loss

Player247 Composite# of Stars
Maliek White1214
Alpha Diallo1144
Jalen Lindsey774
Rodney Bullock 1563
Kyron Cartwright2683
Emmitt Holt2633
Kalif Young3963
Ricky Council II3333
Drew Edwards2863
Isaiah Jackson3863
Ryan Fazekas3913
AVERAGE253.733.27
Top 100 Recruit1
Top 50 Recruit0

This team was the definition of “the sum is greater than the parts”. There was really no high end talent on this roster, but the leadership of Kyron Cartwright and Emmitt Holt really carried this team. This may be a team that honestly maximized its potential and went as far as it could go.

Providence 2015 – 2016 – Second Round Loss

Player247 Composite# of Stars
Ben Bentil1014
Quadree Smith3953
Kris Dunn195
Tyree Chambers4002
Junior Lomomba2873
Kyron Cartwright2683
Drew Edwards2863
Ryan Fazekas 3913
Isaiah Jackson3863
Ricky Council II3333
Rodney Bullock1563
Jalen Lindsey774
Kyron Cartwright2683
AVERAGE2593.23
Top 100 Recruits2
Top 50 Recruits1

This team is the perfect example of why recruiting elite talent matters. These Friars lost in the second round to UNC. The narrative all year around this Providence team was that the outcome of games hinged on the performances of their two All-Big East Players, Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.

Kris Dunn exemplifies why Kim needs to keep getting five star talent on campus. If you land one or two of these players, it changes the entire trajectory of your program. Dunn, drafted fifth overall, accomplished the following in college: 2x Big East Player of the Year, 2X First Team All Big East, 2x Big East Defensive Player of the Year, Second Team All-American.

When you land 5 star talent, you can expect more often than not to have an all-conference type player on your roster. It’s why I admire English going after all these blue chip talents. Even if he bats .100 or .200 on five stars that visit campus, landing even one five star elevates this Friar program significantly.

Ben Bentil should get his praise as well. Most notably, he was the third highest ranked player on the roster when it came to recruiting ranking. It isn’t a coincidence that he produced at the level he did. Bentil in his sophomore season was an honorable mention All-American, First Team All-Big East, and Big East Most Improved Player.

So, how were they only a 9 seed heading into the NCAA tournament given all of what Bentil and Dunn accomplished this year? Look at the talent on the rest of the roster around them. Jalen Lindsey and Rodney Bullock were the only other players on the roster ranked in the TOP 250 in their respective high school classes. If Cooley had recruited a few more Top 100-200 players on this roster, or better, this team had a chance to be a juggernaut. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but Cooley should have done a better job building around Dunn and Bentil.

Recruiting misses by Cooley and reaching for players that may not have been Big East caliber put a lid on what this team could ultimately accomplish.

Providence 2014 – 2015 First Round Loss

Player247 Composite# of Stars
Ben Bentil1014
Kris Dunn195
Rodney Bullock1563
Jalen Lindsey774
Kyron Cartwright2683
Pascal Chukwu 644
Tyree Chambers4002
LaDontae Henton1543
Tyler Harris1253
Carson Desrosiers554
Junior Lomomba2873
AVERAGE155.093.45
Top 1004
Top 501

This team, in all my analysis, has the best average recruiting ranking and star ranking of all the teams under Cooley that made the NCAA tournament. Is it no surprise that they were (outside of the COVID Sweet 16 team) the best ranked NCAA team in the Cooley era as a 6 seed? I think not. This team was flush with talent and underperformed in the NCAA tournament in their loss to Dayton (played in Dayton, I may add). This was a second weekend type team and the recruiting talent backs that up. Continue to stack high end talent, and the results will follow.

Providence 2013 – 2014 Big East Champs, First Round Loss

Player247 Composite# of Stars
Kris Dunn195
Josh Fortune2393
Rodney Bullock 1563
Kadeem Batts1763
Bryce Cotton4002
Brice Kofane2423
Lee Goldsboro4002
LaDontae Henton1543
Tyler Harris1253
Junior Lomomba2873
Carson Desrosiers554
AVERAGE204.823.09
Top 100 Recruits3
Top 50 Recruits2

This Big East Championship is even more impressive when you consider that Kris Dunn (injury) didn’t play all season. While we will always look at this team through a special lens because of their Big East Tournament championship, fans need to remember that if they didn’t win the Big East Championship, they weren’t making the NCAA tournament. It was a magical run.

This season is another “what if” for me, as Dunn would have been an All-Conference player as a Sophomore. Imagine pairing him next to Bryce Cotton? Oh, the possibilities.

SUMMARY

This article is meant to serve as a reminder for why I constantly mention on the podcast and in articles why recruiting elite talent is so important. Recruiting is the lifeblood of a program. The more high end talent you get, the better your chances are for success.

In closing, I hope this article provides a different perspective as to why I’m so bullish on the 2023-2024 roster. When comparing all of Ed Cooley’s teams, the 2023-2024 Friars have the most amount of Top 100 and Top 50 recruits on the roster. The average recruiting ranking of 193 on this roster is third only to the 6 seed 2014-2015 roster and last year’s squad that was a Top 25 team for the vast majority of the season.

Beyond the elite talent on the roster, as determined by the 247 Composite Rankings, English has brought in impact veterans in Josh Oduro and Ticket Gaines. We saw with the Sweet 16 team just how important the elder statesmen are in college basketball. Combine veteran production with high end talent, and your program has the chance to have a memorable season.

Part 2 of this Recruiting Rankings Matter article will compare this year’s Providence squad to National Champions over the past 7 years to show, from a recruiting perspective, how close (and far) the Friars roster is to measuring up to historical national champions and their respective rosters.

I hope you enjoyed. Go Friars.

-BOC

The Providence Crier Recruiting Articles

Rankings Do Matter: Analyzing the Final Four Rosters by Recruiting Rankings – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2021/04/03/stars-in-fact-do-matter-analyzing-the-final-4-rosters-relative-to-recruiting-rankings/

2025 Recruiting Primer, Version 3.0https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/04/30/2025-providence-college-high-school-recruiting-primer-version-1-0/

2024 Recruiting Primer, Version 8.0 https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/03/27/providence-college-basketball-recruiting-class-of-2024/

2024 Luke Bamgboye – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/09/18/crier-recruiting-corner-introducing-2024-big-man-luke-bamgboye/

Eli DeLaurier Commits to Providence & Reclassifies – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/09/06/eli-delaurier-reclassifies-and-joins-friars-for-upcoming-season/

Ryan Mela Commits to Providence – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/08/01/friars-add-3-star-wing-ryan-mela-to-2024-recruiting-class/

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