Glass Full or Glass Empty? The Optimist and Pessimist’s Outlook on the 2023-2024 Providence Friars

It’s a fun exercise to take the position of an optimist and pessimist when evaluating how this season could play out. There are so many unknowns about this roster, the conference, and this coach that it is entertaining to evaluate all the different outcomes.

We took the stance of “what happens this season if everything goes right” and “what happens this season if everything goes wrong”. When taking this on, we kept outcomes realistic. While I’d love to say every starter averages 20 points a game, and this team is the second coming of the Golden State Warriors, that isn’t realistic. All of the below potential outcomes are within the realm of possibility.

Without further ado, a preview of this season from The Optimist and The Pessimist. Enjoy!

The Optimist’s Preview: The Providence Friars

1. Bryce Hopkins makes a second year leap at Providence and becomes a Two Time First Team All Big East Player and All-American. The reshaping of his body pays off, and he increases his numbers to 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists a game.

BOC: Bryce was on his way to being a repeat All-Conference player before injury. His adjustment to the Kim English offense was taking longer than I and many fans would have liked, but he clearly was going to be a double double guy.

2. Devin Carter’s offseason works pays off, as his three point field goal percentage increases from 29% to 34%. Devin Carter uses his improvement from last year to become Big East DPOY and All Conference.

BOC: Nailed it. If possible, Devin Carter vastly exceeded my already high expectations for him. He ended up shooting 38% from the year from deep, is considered a lock first round pick, and won Big East POY. He was also robbed of DPOY.

3. Garwey Dual is as good as the hype indicates, being named Big East Freshman of the Year and combining with Devin Carter to form one of the best defensive backcourts in the entire country.

BOC: Missed on this. The potential was always there, but he lacked consistency. It’ll be interesting to see where he ends up next year.

4. The concerns around depth in the frontcourt are completely overblown, as Castro shows he can hold down the back-up 5 position and provides rim protection that PC hasn’t seen in years. Oduro shows to be an adequate defender, incredible offensive big man, and adept at avoiding foul trouble.

BOC: I missed here on Castro, admittedly. I thought with his third year in the program he would be a serviceable back-up big. He wasn’t. I do think the frontcourt concerns would have been overblown if Hopkins stayed healthy. This team was thin as is, and the Hopkins injury completely exposed the lack of depth.

5. Jayden Pierre is the clear point guard of the present and future and will be the PC lead guard for the foreseeable future.

BOC: To be determined, but his end of season surge has me cautiously optimistic that Pierre makes a leap this offseason.

6. The shift to a Kim English offense is a resounding success, as PC finishes in the top 2 in points per game with Creighton.

BOC: Miss. I miscalculated how the roster Cooley built is not at all built for the Kim English offense. I think we see a much better offense, even if Carter doesn’t return, next year.

The Pessimist’s Preview: The Providence Friars

1. The depth in the frontcourt is an issue all season, as teams abuse PC in the post with ease. The loss of Will McNair is a bigger one (literally and figuratively) than Friar fans anticipated. Rebounding, rim protection, and depth are the ultimate Achilles heel for this squad. This issue puts a cap on the ceiling for the Friars.

BOC: Unfortunately, this is correct. McNair was a bigger loss (literally and figuratively) than we cared to admit at the time.

2. There is a steep learning curve to coaching in the Big East for Kim English, particularly against the likes of Pitino, Hurley, Smart, Miller, McDermott, etc. The close games that Providence fans are used to winning become close losses, as English continues to find his footing in in-game coaching at the Big East level.

BOC: This was one of the positive revelations of this season, in that English looked like he belonged at the Big East level. Ironically, his kryptonite was Kyle Neptune.

3. While English wants to play a 4 out offense, PC doesn’t have the personnel to do so and shots themselves out of games too frequently. Providence fans ironically begin calling for a grind it out offensive style of play that was the hallmark under Ed Cooley.

BOC: Nailed this one. No other commentary needed.

4. Point guard play is a work in progress, and Jayden Pierre and Garwey Dual need another year of seasoning before becoming consistent contributors at the Big East level. Nobody clearly takes the reins as starting point guard.

BOC: Nailed this one too.

5. The jump from the A10 to Big East proves to be too large for Josh Oduro and Ticket Gaines, and they are overwhelmed by the talent in the Big East.

BOC: I would say this is incorrect. Ticket didn’t produce like I thought he would, but he never looked overmatched. He just didn’t do what he was brought in to do (make 3’s).

Oduro was a positive revelation and was one of the top bigs in the Big East all year.

6. The injury bug strikes Providence. I’ll leave it at that.

BOC: I wish I never included this one. This will be the story of this past year. The What If season. What if Bryce never gets hurt? What if Justyn Fernandez is healthy? What if Josh Oduro doesn’t miss a road game against Butler due to child birth? What if McNair and Alyn Breed don’t transfer at the 11th hour? What if Pierre never gets hurt against KState in Baha Mar?

When writing that all out, it’s incredible that English was able to keep things afloat.

Summary

When analyzing the optimist and pessimist’s take on the season, I naturally find myself leaning towards the positive outcomes of the season.

I feel like a broken record, but I believe this is a Sweet 16 team. The only thing that may prevent that from happening, in my opinion, is the lack of quality depth and size in the frontcourt. It is my only legitimate concern heading into the season.

If Kim English can find a way to gameplan around this, I believe PC is going to have a special season.

BOC: I won’t walk back this prediction after getting some time to digest the outcome. I think this Providence team was a second weekend team with a healthy Bryce Hopkins.

Providence Crier Preseason Articles

What I’m Most Looking Forward To in Season Opener – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/11/03/providence-season-preview-what-im-looking-forward-to-seeing-in-the-opener/

Intel from Big East Media Day – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/10/24/2023-big-east-media-day-insights-and-intel-from-the-friars-the-big-east/

Non-Conference Prediction – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/08/10/bocs-way-too-early-non-conference-prediction/

Bryce Hopkins – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/10/05/providence-crier-player-preview-series-can-bryce-hopkins-take-home-big-east-poy/

Devin Carter – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/10/04/providence-crier-player-preview-devin-carter-most-under-appreciated-player-in-the-big-east/

Josh Oduro – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/10/02/the-providence-crier-player-preview-josh-oduro-ancoring-the-frontcourt/

Ticket Gaines – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/09/29/providence-crier-player-preview-series-is-ticket-gaines-the-friars-glue-guy/

Rafael Castro – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/09/22/crier-player-preview-series-is-rafael-castros-pcs-biggest-unknown/

Donovan Santoro – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/09/21/crier-player-preview-series-can-donovan-santoros-shooting-ability-carve-him-out-a-role-this-season/

Justyn Fernandez – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/09/24/providence-crier-player-series-spotlight-will-justyn-fernandez-redshirt/

Jayden Pierre – https://theprovidencecrier.com/2023/09/26/crier-player-preview-series-jayden-pierre-drawing-comparisons-to-mckinley-wright-iv/