Providence was thoroughly beaten against the Xavier Musketeers earlier in the year, getting boat raced in the second half on the way to an 85-65 defeat at home. As all Providence fans know, a home loss at the AMP is a rarity, let alone a thorough dismantling like that one.
It was one of those days where everything clicked for Xavier. Xavier was 50% from 3, 50.8% from the floor, and had two players score over 20 points. Xavier on the season is a 34.4% three point shooting team and 43.5% overall from the floor. As I’ve said on podcasts, I’m not sure Providence defeats Xavier in this game even with a healthy Bryce Hopkins. It was just their day in Providence. When your combo guard who shoots 21.8% from 3 goes 3-6 from deep against you, there is really nothing you can do. Trey Green scored 23 points in this one. He is averaging 6 points a game this year. I point these things out to emphasize that Providence isn’t as bad as they appeared in the first match-up against Xavier. It was a complete performance from X.
This game is important for many reasons. For one, it gets Providence one game closer to 11 conference wins, which many are considering the necessity to be considered an NCAA “lock” before conference tournament play starts. Secondly, this would be a massive resume win. Despite being 13-12, Xavier is 44 in KenPom and 55 in NET. A win on the road and Providence has secured another ever elusive Quad 1 victory. I think Providence is on the right side of the bubble right now, but a win like this gets them even further off the bubble.
We preview what Providence needs to accomplish to avoid a repeat of the initial match-up.
Oduro The Facilitator – I believe Sean Miller is one of the top coaches in college basketball, and he knows Oduro can wreck this game for his team. I’d expect Miller to deploy doubles the moment Josh gets the ball. Josh is a great passing big man and will find the open man more often than not.
It is imperative our role players, like Floyd Jr., Ticket, Barron, and Pierre, be ready to knock down the open look because they will be there all night. Providence went 26.7% from deep in the opening match-up and took 30 three point attempts. I can see the same gameplan being deployed by Xavier defensively, so Providence needs to make them play and go 35% + from deep.
Additionally, Oduro needs to be ready to make his move quickly before the double comes. If they decide to alter the game plan and play him 1 on 1, he’ll have a field day.
Know Your Scout – Desmond Claude loves getting downhill and attacking the rim. He went off against the Friars in the first one, scoring 21 on 9-16 shooting. Providence needs to know he doesn’t want to shoot the three ball. The 3-6 outing from deep was a complete anomaly when looking at the course of the entire season. They need to respect his ability to knock it down, but his preference is the pump fake and drive to the rim.
Quincy Olivari, on the other hand, can stroke it from deep. He is shooting 44.3% from three point land this year, part of the reason he is scoring 19.1 points/game. He is a tougher scout, but you need to run him off the three point line.
Claude will likely be guarded by a combination of Floyd or Carter due to his physicality. I can see Olivari being guarded by both of the guys above, but also Dual and Pierre in a pinch. Xavier has very good guard play and makes it tough defensively.
Gaines – Mask or no Mask? He had an off night against DePaul, and we jokingly said it was because of the mask. Let’s see if he is healed up enough to go mask-less. Providence needs him to contribute, as he went 1-6 overall in the first match-up.
Free Throws… – Providence went 15-22 in the first match-up, a depressing 68.2%. In a road game, Providence needs to go above 70% and cannot put up a clunker from the charity stripe.
Play with Urgency & Fire – Everything is in front of Providence heading into March Madness. They don’t need to rely on other bubble teams faltering. Providence can take matters into their own hands by winning decisively tonight to a team that they, objectively, should beat if they have NCAA aspirations. Xavier, while boat racing Providence in the first match-up, is 13-12 for a reason. They aren’t a very good team.
Providence came out sluggish against Depaul and finished the game in the same manner. Kim English lit into them, and I anticipate seeing a motivated Providence squad. There is no reason to not play with urgency given the ramifications of this game.
Prediction
BOC: Providence settles the score in this one, winning 71 – 68.
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