The celebration over beating Ed Cooley and Georgetown is over. The sobering reality of the Big East hits quickly for the Friars as they travel to Storrs to take on the #1 Ranked Huskies. Connecticut, 18-2 on the season and 8-1 in Conference, is coming off an absolute dismantling of Xavier 99-56.
Danny Hurley has somehow recaptured the momentum of their historic NCAA title run last year and has his squad firing on all cylinders. While Connecticut rolled through the NCAA tournament en route to a title, they were by no means a juggernaut in the Big East last year. They struggled a fair amount, but don’t seem to be having anywhere close to the same issues this year. It is scary to say Hurley may have a superior squad this year compared to last year.
While the odds are heavily stacked against Providence, the Friars have historically been a thorn in the side of the Huskies, record be damned. This goes back to the Calhoun days where overmatched Providence teams would match up against Calhoun’s roster of pros and somehow pick off the Puppies. Providence fans are looking for a similar outcome Wednesday night.
The impact of a win for Providence is obvious. It would be arguably the best NCAA tournament win of any team all season, beating the #1 team on the road. It’d give Providence another Quad 1 win on top of the wins against Wisconsin, Marquette, and Seton Hall. Lastly, it’d put the Friars squarely on the right side of the bubble.
Nobody is expecting the Friars to win, for good reason, and Providence should roll into this game playing with nothing to lose.
We break down how Providence can secure an upset below.
Providence Needs to be Uncharacteristically Hot from Deep – Providence won’t win this one without having an “on” night from deep. I state this because Connecticut is an offensive juggernaut. They are #1 in Big East in following offensive categories: Points Per Game, Field Goal %, Three Point Field Goal %. Providence, while possessing a strong defense, doesn’t have the staying power to win this game if it is in the 60’s.
If the Friars are to pull off an upset, it will be on the backs of Providence making 10+ 3’s in this game.
Oduro Needs to be the X Factor – Josh struggled against Kalkbrenner, and he faces a similar opponent in Donovan Clingan. I don’t know how much success Josh will have in the paint, so it may come down to him knocking down a few perimeter shots to drag Donovan out of the post He couldn’t do that against Creighton, but Oduro did get quality looks in that match-up. If he has those similar looks, he has to be ready to pull the trigger.
If Oduro can additionally get Clingan in foul trouble, I’m not sure Samson Johnson has the patience or post defense to adequately guard him.
Conversely, Oduro in early foul trouble essentially eliminates the chance of a Providence upset. The thin frontcourt of the Friars may rear its ugly head in this one.
Who Guards Devin Carter – I’m guessing the stud freshmen Stephon Castle and Solomon Ball are tasked with trying to guard the potential All-American. I can’t see Spencer or Newton getting the assignment, as I don’t think they are capable defenders. This is the one area that I’d be concerned with if I’m a Connecticut fan, but it’s also a great opportunity for these two young dudes. I’d imagine Hurley sends doubles Carter’s way if he starts off hot. Hurley was content last year letting Carter try to beat them from deep. I’m not sure that’s a sound strategy this year.
Run Spencer and Karaban off Three Point Line – This is a pick your poison match-up. I think English needs to live with Connecticut scoring with ease off lobs and in the paint rather than daring Spencer and Karaban to beat them deep coming off screens. They are assassins from the three point line, and I’d feel more comfortable as a Providence fan deliberately guarding the deep ball and forcing these two to finish attacking the rim. It’s the lesser of two evils.
Pierre the Aggressor – Similar to Carter’s match-up, I’m not sure Newton and Spencer have the foot speed to guard Pierre. Pierre, while just a sophomore, is starting to come into his own and needs to insert himself into the Providence offensive gameplan. If he can get by his man in a half court set, it will lead to help defense which opens up quality looks for the other perimeter players on Providence. They just need to knock down those open looks when presented.
Equal on the Boards – Providence, quite simply, can’t give Connecticut many second chance opportunities on offense. If they get dominated on the glass, it will be a very long night. PC must limit the Huskies on the glass and break even. Team rebounding is paramount.
Prediction
BOC: I think Providence plays well in this one, but UConn is too much at the end. Huskies 79, Providence 71
BOC I hope you are right with your score prediction. It sounds negative but I am being realistic.
I would be overjoyed to win but I think if we lose by 10 points or less I would be ok with it. I really don’t want to be trounced like Xavier was. Xavier had no D. Our defense will save us in this game. If the puppies have an off shooting night anything can happen! Go Friars!
BOC, another great job breaking down tomorrow’s game. Unfortunately, this game, on the road against the #1 team in the country can be summed up in this outlook. Can’t wait for Saturday’s game. We just don’t have the pieces to stick with this big physical team. There is no way O’duro will be able to handle their front court alone without fouling out. Again, BOC you’re spot on in regards to pointing out that our outside shooting must be potent but, when was the last time we’ve put together 40 minutes of consistent outside shooting on the road or anywhere for that matter? So, here is what is going to happen. We’re going to get our heads handed to us tomorrow night. But all is not lost because at the end of the season, the rematch with #1 UConn in Providence and Providence needing a win for a spot in the NCAA’s, the AMP which is the best 6th man in college basketball will help push the Friars to their biggest and most important win of the season and Coach English’s biggest career victory.
Russ- I agree with your analysis but as I stated in my comment to BOC I just don’t want to be annihilated in this one the way Xavier was in Storrs. As long as we play well, take care of the rock and play good D we should come out of this ok. My biggest fears: too many TO’s, Oduro vs. Clingan and poor shooting from outside. Hopefully, we will depart unscathed and learn some things that will help us to be victorious on March 9th at the AMP. Go Friars!