Providence is reeling a bit right now. Coming off a surprising home loss against Seton Hall to drop to 11-3 and 2-1 in the Big East, the difficult situation was compounded when the college basketball world realized Bryce Hopkins would be out for the remainder of the year with an ACL injury. Providence is now without it’s reigning First Team All-Big East player and needs to reshape itself quickly in the midst of a two game road trip starting in Omaha.
Kim English needs to get creative in how he reshapes the identity of this team. The Big East won’t be patient with him as he experiments with new rotations and line-ups. He takes on a Creighton team that has admittedly struggled a bit this year, but is fresh off an Elite 8 run and returns the majority of their nucleus from last year. This game, even with Hopkins, was looking like a longshot to win, and the odds of victory are that much more slim with the unfortunate news of Bryce Hopkins.
This, my friends, is why you play the ball game. We detail below what we want to see in the game tomorrow and how the Providence Friars can secure a victory without their stalwart in the frontcourt.
Run Scheierman (and team) Off the 3 Point Line – Scheierman is currently the league leader in points per game at 18.6 points. He is leading the Big East at 3.1 threes made a game and most attempts a game at 8.6. The key is to force Baylor to beat you within the 3 point line. Even if he gets the step on you, that is the better option than giving him any space to beat you from deep. Also, whomever is tasked with guarding Scheierman needs to identify him early in transition. Whether it be Gaines or Floyd Jr., they need to be on task the entirety of the game and cannot fall asleep when guarding him. Similar to what Seton Hall did to Gaines, Providence needs to do its best in limiting the quality attempts from Baylor.
Creighton as a team is averaging 37.2% from deep. Thus, Kim must implore his team to run them off the 3 point line, go over the top of ball screens, and live with potentially getting beat in the mid-range. That, to me, is the key for success if Providence is to pull off the upset.
Try to Get Kalkbrenner in Foul Trouble – This is the ultimate litmus test for Josh Oduro. Oduro has been a revelation for the Friars thus far, averaging 15, 7, and 2. He’s already proven he can play and hang in the Big East. The next level of the test is to see how he performs against the oak trees of the Big East like Kalkbrenner and Clingan. Oduro gives up a lot of height to these guys, and Kalkbrenner has proven in the past to completely alter the offensive strategy of Providence with his shot blocking ability.
What Oduro has going for it that other Providence bigs did not historically have is his patience in the post when establishing position, along with his elite footwork. Eric Dixon has had a ton of success against Kalkbrenner because his post moves around the rim are superb. I think of Josh Oduro’s skillset in a comparable fashion to Dixon. The difference is that Eric Dixon can hit the 3 ball consistently. Dixon scored 32 points in the win against Creighton earlier in the year, but shot 10 threes in that game. I don’t think we’ve seen enough of Josh to feel confident with him taking 5+ 3 point attempts, and that seems to be the means in which a big can get the best of Kalk.
If Oduro can get Kalkbrenner in foul trouble, it completely alters the dynamics of the game because I think Providence has the superior defensive unit. Alternatively, if Oduro gets in foul trouble guarding Kalkbrenner, this one could get ugly quickly.
Who Replaces Hopkins in the Starting Line-Up? We discussed this in the article published earlier today below, but I think the short term adjustment is relying on Corey Floyd Jr. to rise to the occasion. Floyd Jr. brings athleticism and physicality to the line-up that will desperately need it without Bryce. Floyd needs to play with aggression and cannot at all be tentative. Realistically, Floyd Jr. helps gang rebound, plays tough team defense, and attacks the rim. Ideally, Floyd Jr. uses the promotion to the starting line-up to rediscover his stroke from last year and become a perimeter threat. Providence is in a dire position and needs Floyd Jr. to be more than just a solid defender and role player.
I think we’ll also see Barron’s minutes increase, as he can be an instant offense option.
Noticeable Change in Ball Movement? I’m curious to see if the Providence ball movement in the half court and in transition is quicker and sticks less. I am fairly confident that is what we will see, as I do think the offense will become more aligned with what Kim wants to see in his offenses. Getting up and down may play into what Creighton wants to do, but I think that is the only way that Providence can consistently generate quality looks.
Point Guards Need to be Assertive – As Mike mentioned on the podcast, Steven Ashworth hasn’t lived up to the accolades he was receiving preseason. He is smaller in stature for the Big East and isn’t the replacement for Nembhardt that many in Creighton were hoping for. This is a game where Pierre and Dual must be on the ATTACK. They need to hunt their own shots, be aggressive, and try to take the game into their own hands. We’ve seen too much deference from the point guards this season, and it is time for them to be a bit selfish. Creighton is last in the Big East in steals per game at 3.3 steals, so Pierre and Dual should theoretically have one of their best match-ups of the year.
Tight Defense, No Fouls – Creighton is last in the Big East in getting to the line, only averaging 14.9 free throw attempts/game. Providence is known for its stellar D, ranking 6th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The only way they get out of this one with a victory is by engulfing the Creighton offense with their defensive effort. Even without Hopkins, the pieces are in place to make offense difficult to come by for the Creighton Bluejays. Pierre, Dual, Carter, Floyd Jr. all need to be in the shirts of the Bluejays and make them uncomfortable.
Providence needs to bring the fight to the Bluejays.
Prediction
BOC: I’m going to slightly revise my take from the podcast. I think Providence still ends up losing, but not by the margin I mentioned. Providence shows fight, and the Friar fanbase sees the new pieces in place begin to gel and become a cohesive unit. Creighton 73, Providence 67.
Crier: Too much offense for Creighton. Bluejays 78 – Friars 67.
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