Providence is in the midst of a three game win streak and have a new outlook on the rest of the season. The vibes are riding high in Friartown, and they have a chance to get even higher with this match-up at home against Marquette on Senior Night. Not only will the seniors be getting honored, but the return of Duncan Powell will lead to an even more jubilant, raucous environment. The Friars have a lot going for it right now, but in comes Marquette and the pesky Golden Eagles who stole one from Providence earlier in the year.
Led by sensational freshman guard Nigel James Jr., Marquette and Shaka have had a very down year by Marquette standards as they rebuild their roster through the traditional means of high school recruiting. Despite the down season, Marquette is going to D up the Friars and play the Friars tough like they always do. Although just a freshman, James has the ability to take over this game, especially against a Providence team that has struggled to effectively guard ball dominant point guards (James and Budd Clark come to mind).
English seems to have a really good pulse on this team, but he needs to ensure they aren’t smelling the roses early and reading the press clippings too frequently. This team is still a game below .500 and needs to stay completely locked in if they want to head into Big East Tournament week on a wave of positive momentum.
We detail the keys to a victory below.
Containing Nigel James Jr.
In the first match-up, James went absolutely nuclear, going for 38 points and 8 assists. Providence, for whatever reason, has had trouble guarding these shifty smaller guards like Clark from Seton Hall and James.
Edwards appears to be healthy and ready to give it a go, and this could be a game where English challenges Edwards to win this 1 on 1 match-up with his defensive efforts. Note that Edwards wasn’t available in the first game due to injury, so he could be a real X factor here in at least slowing down James.
Continuing the Trend of Turnover Free Basketball
In its last two games, Providence has averaged a stellar 5.5 turnovers/game. This game is a good litmus test to see if the lack of turnovers are a sign of a team turning the corner or a two game anomaly. I state this because in the first match-up Providence turned the ball over 17 times to Marquette’s 6. Despite Providence only losing by one, the Golden Eagles had a +11 turnover margin. Let’s see if Providence can keep the turnovers at a single digit level. This could be THE key to victory.
Leaning into the “new” offensive strategy
Providence is a top 3 team in three point field goal percentage in conference (3rd at 36%, 0.5% below two teams tied for top), but of late aren’t shooting a lot of three’s. This strategy is working with flying colors.
In the last win against Creighton, Providence went 42% from deep, but only attempted 19 3’s. In the three game winning streak, they are averaging 17.6 three attempts a game. Using this three game winning streak as a sample, 17.6 attempts would put them second to last in three point attempts in conference behind the Hall, but their three point field goal percentage of 47.2% would be clearly tops in the league. They are uber efficient right now from behind the arc, and I think it’s because the shot selection has been so pristine.
I use the analogy of running the football to set up the pass downfield. Providence is using these body blows by attacking the rim, causing the defense to anticipate the drive and suck into the paint. It is leading to separation from behind the arc and the ability to kick out for wide open 3’s.
In the loss to Marquette, Vaaks attempted 15 3’s. That’s a recipe for loss seven days out of the week. That can’t happen again in this one.
Closing Out a Win
When Providence was up 6 with about a minute and a half to Creighton, I said to my father in law, “Let’s see how Providence can make this game stressful and try to give the game away”. He laughed, but, sure enough, PC did everything humanly possible to give that game to Creighton.
The Friars came out with a win, but they really need to learn how to close these games out without every end of game situation being a sh** show. I think the answer is finding Sellers and making him the closer à la Al Durham. He’s the only one I trust with the ball in his hands end of game. Everybody else seems to panic and make rash decisions that hurt the team. Get the ball to Jaylin in the closing moments, please.
Health of Friars
I’m going to steal this directly from the Creighton preview because it is still very much applicable. It is even more pertinent with Duncan Powell returning to the rotation.
Do we see a healthy Vaaks and Floyd Jr. back? Providence needs a few more bodies if they want to make an end of season run, so having these guys back would be a welcome addition.
If they are back, particularly Vaaks, they need to assimilate to their new roles. A basketball team and locker room is a fluid ecosystem, with roles ever changing. They both need to recognize this is now Jaylin Seller’s team and defer to him accordingly. There may not be a player playing better in the Big East right now than Jaylin Sellers. It’s his offense, and the offense should be run through him. Vaaks has too long of a leash, in my opinion, and I want to see English rein that in.
I’ll be interested to see if these two both play, and, if they do, what their roles are and how many minutes are played.
BOC- why do you want Floyd back? He is good at times but turns the ball over way too much for my liking a la Jayden Pierre. We should survive Marquette and Georgetown if, like you propose, we rely very heavily on Sellers and take care of the rock. Go Friars!