Providence is riding high on a two game winning streak. Post-game interviews declaring their emergence, discussions around Big East Tournament…is this 2020 all over again? Let’s pump the brakes.
Providence is still below .500 and has a tough road game against Creighton on Saturday night. Providence is vying for a bye in the Big East Tournament, and that is almost a mathematical impossibility with a loss to the Blue Jays. Creighton is 8-10 in conference and a game and a half ahead of Providence in the Big East Standings.
In the first match-up, PC flexed its muscles in the second half by moving away from the perimeter and playing at the hoop. I’d expect more of the same in this one.
For PC to sneak into the 5 seed, they’ll have to win out and get some help on the way. Needless to say, Saturday is important for seeding implications, but I think the real importance for this game is building on the positive momentum the Friars currently have. This Providence team has been inconsistent all year, but a win Saturday would do wonders for this team and fan base itching for reasons to believe.
We preview the vital game below.
Keys to Game
Attack the Rim with Reckless Abandon
Creighton has little size in the frontcourt, with their tallest rotational player being all of 6’8, and Providence can feast in this game by playing the game from the foul line in. If they implemented this strategy in the first match-up the entirety of the game, I think Providence wins by 15+. PC has a decisive advantage and must fully lean into that with conviction.
English and the scout don’t need to overcomplicate this one offensively. PC is an incredible team from the floor, but is particularly lethal from inside the arc. The only team better from the floor when excluding three pointers, based off 2 point field goal %, is Connecticut.
This Friar team is built to play downhill. Sellers, Jones, Mela are all at their best moving forward with a locomotive pace. Vaaks is streaky from deep, but I do think he stresses the defense the most when he is playing at varying paces and getting a step on his man when attacking the hoop.
A three ball from him or Edwards in a half-court set is a settle, in my opinion. The three point shot is a weapon for PC, but shouldn’t be the primary means of generating offense.
Providence shot 25 3’s in the last match-up, and I think they are a team at their best when shooting 17-20 three’s a game, and the numbers in conference play back that up.
On the road, it is imperative that PC isn’t lulled into a three point shootout with Creighton. Providence needs to stick to playing bully ball, even if they get down in this game, and not deviate off the game-plan by trying to go shot for shot with Creighton. That’s a recipe for a loss in a game they should win. Looking at you, Mr. Edwards and Mr. Vaaks.
By attacking the rim, Oswin can feast on the glass off put backs. At this stage in his career, that’s how I believe he is utilized best. If a defender comes to help on the driving guard, Oswin needs to make himself available with a pocket pass or lob. I can see this game being a big one for the sophomore big as long as Providence sticks to the game plan that maximizes their chance for success.
Another 4 Turnover Game?
If you listened to our last podcast prior to the Xavier game, I backed off my stance on single digit turnovers and simply asked for 12 turnovers or less. Well, PC rang the bell with only 4 turnovers against the Musketeers, and that allowed them to have a rather comfortable victory.
Creighton has an adequate offense, maybe not at the level of Xavier’s, but enough to punish a team like Providence who will be in a raucous road environment. Even in a “down year” for Coach Mac and the Blue Jays, it is the final home game of the year, and I’m certain Omaha will be filled to the brim to thank their departing seniors. Creighton has a very loyal and faithful fan base.
Thus, it’s imperative that PC doesn’t fall into bad habits with being careless with the rock.
How about this for a middle ground from yours truly: let’s settle for 11 turnovers or less? If they can do that, I like PC’s chances.
Know the Defensive Scout
Creighton has 5 guys shooting over 36% from three this season on their roster. Providence needs to know the assignment and, similar to Xavier, run them off the three point line to see if their offense is multifaceted enough to beat them without the deep ball in their arsenal.
Jasen Green is a good story for Creighton, a guy that has bided his time behind Kalkbrenner and is now blossoming as an upperclassman. He’s an all hustle and effort player, and you can’t let him get too many second chance opportunities for him and his team. Find him on the box-out and limit to their offensive sets to one-and-done.
Health of Friars
Do we see a healthy Vaaks and Floyd Jr. back? Providence needs a few more bodies if they want to make an end of season run, so having these guys back would be a welcome addition.
If they are back, particularly Vaaks, they need to assimilate to their new roles. A basketball team and locker room is a fluid ecosystem, with roles ever changing. They both need to recognize this is now Jaylin Seller’s team and defer to him accordingly. There may not be a player playing better in the Big East right now than Jaylin Sellers. It’s his offense, and the offense should be run through him. Vaaks has too long of a leash, in my opinion, and I want to see English rein that in.
I’ll be interested to see if these two both play, and, if they do, what their roles are and how many minutes are played.