Providence is 9-12 on the season and head to Philadelphia to take on my surprise of the Big East season, the Villanova Wildcats. Led by new coach Kevin Willard, Villanova has played itself into the NCAA tournament as of this writing and are looking to continue to build up their resume Friday night with a win.
Villanova is an 8.5 point favorite, with the Wildcats beating the Friars in Providence 88-82 earlier in the year. In the first match-up, it was a stellar first half by the Wildcats that did the Friars in, as they went into half with a 12 point lead. Providence tightened the screws defensively in the second half, but it was too little too late. Nova’s bench production was superb in that one, with grad transfer senior Devin Askew scoring 20 points and promising sophomore Malachi Palmer chipping in with 10.
There is the sentiment amongst the Crier and I that all of these close losses are going to inevitably show their lingering effects on the team one night, and Crier and I fear that night may be this one against Villanova. We applauded the Friars for valiantly fighting against Connecticut on the road, but they still ended up on the wrong end of that outcome. There may come a point where the wind is completely out of the sails for the Friars.
We breakdown the game in more detail below and highlight what the Friars can do to potentially secure a road victory.
Keys to Game
Alter Defensive Strategy – Run Teams off Three Point Line
We talked about it on our latest podcast, but the issues that have persisted all year that have been the downfall of the 2025-2026 Providence Friars can almost entirely be chalked up to the subpar defense, particularly when guarding the three ball.
There are 365 teams in Division 1 basketball, and Providence is 341st in three point field goal defense. They are sandwiched between Southern Miss and Eastern Washington. Good company to be in.
Against Villanova in the first match-up, Villanova was 36% from three, which is a good outing for any team. Surprisingly, that is Providence doing a good job on the defensive end, as Providence is allowing teams to shoot 37.7% from 3 all season. Go figure.
If Providence has any chance in this one, they need to run Villanova off the three point line entirely. If they do get looks off, they cannot be uncontested like we saw so many times against Connecticut.
If Villanova shoots below 30% from 3, it gives the Friars a fighting chance, but I don’t know if Providence has the defensive discipline to stay engaged for 40 minutes. It’s a sad state of affairs on the defensive end.
Stay with the Jamal Mashburn/BOC Strategy – Minimize the Three Ball!
Anytime an NBA legend is agreeing with my offensive strategy, I’ll take it and run with it. I’m wrong so often in my life that it feels nice to get somebody of Mash’s stature to agree with my beliefs on what is best for Providence.
I’ve made this point too often all season, but I believe the best version of Providence’s offense is driving to the room, getting to the foul line, and limiting the number of three point attempts. I won’t belabor the point any further, but hopefully the below stats can back up what I’m saying.
Couple this with Nova having minimal size, and you are not optimizing your chance for success by shooting 20+ 3’s. Providence lost by 6 against Villanova in the first match-up, and they shot 25 3’s, making only 8. I’d like to see that number of attempts trimmed by 7-10.
Make them defend you at the rim. If they can’t, they foul you, and you are leading the Big East in free throw percentage. Basketball can be a simple sport if you allow it to be. Don’t overthink the strategy here.
Attack, attack, attack.
Get Brennan into Foul Trouble – Utilize Oswin Effectively
Duke Brennan has been a really pleasant surprise for Villanova. In the first match-up, he had his way with Oswin, going for 14 and 8. Oswin, on the other hand, only played 20 minutes and had 4 points and 6 rebounds.
I do feel this offensive shift we’ve seen of late has allowed Oswin to hone in on what he does well: clean up missed attempts off lay-ups for put back dunks and finish closely around the rim. We need a much more effective Oswin to have a chance on the road.
Health of Floyd and Impact to Rotation
In a season that hasn’t gone well for Floyd Jr., likely suffering a concussion against Connecticut while also being incorrectly called for a foul is the cherry on top. Silas Demary climbed over the top of Floyd, hit him on the head, and somehow got the foul called on Corey. It’s been that type of season for the New Jersey native.
I’d be surprised if Floyd played, but Floyd came back relatively quickly after the Dunkin Donuts car accident saga last year, and I believe the anecdote was Kim had to pull him off the practice court due to him wanting to play through the injury.
For whatever critics want to say about Floyd Jr., he busts his tail and plays through a lot of injuries and ailments. I don’t expect him to play, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he does. He’s a tough kid.
If he doesn’t suit up, Nilavan Daniels likely will see 10-15 minutes of playing time. Honestly, even if Floyd Jr. does suit up, Daniels has earned playing time. He showed great defensive effort against Connecticut, knocked down open looks, and played like he belonged.
In a season where effort on the defensive end is sometimes lacking from the Friars, you need to reward the guys that do the little things correctly.
I’d be disappointed if English doesn’t make a statement by playing Daniels more than his usual allotment.
Status of Edwards
Edwards is apparently close to playing, but we’ll see if he suits up on the road in this one. If Floyd is missing, they do need more bodies in the backcourt, and the scoring punch of Edwards is always a positive.
We shall see.
Prediction
BOC: Not feeling great about this one. PC will hang around, but never truly contend. The losses continue. Villanova 84, Providence 76.