In a game that Providence needed to have to turn the tide on the season, the Friars metaphorically and literally let the game slip out of their grasp on the road against Butler. Providence ultimately fell to Butler in double overtime 113-110 in a game where offense was easy to come by and defense was entirely optional. A missed open three by Stefan Vaaks would have tied the game with seconds remaining, but rimmed out. The Bulldogs go to 8-2 on the season and 1-0 in conference while Providence slips to 7-5 and 0-1 in Big East play.
Providence’s offense continues to be a borderline elite national unit (12th nationally at 91.7 points per game), with its star transfers Jason Edwards and Jaylin Sellers combining for 58 points, with double digit efforts by Vaaks, Floyd Jr., Jones, and Powell complementing them.
If you were to tell me that six Providence players scored in double figures, the dynamic duo above totaled 58 points, and Providence’s bench outscored Butler’s bench 53 – 22, I would have assumed a rather comfortable margin of victory for the Friars. Not so fast, my friend.
Unfortunately, it was the defensive efforts and rebounding woes that did the Friars in, just like it has all season. At some point, the shift has to come from the coaching staff and players that winning games by trying to outscore an opponent is not a viable long term plan. Defense needs to come first. Until that happens, we’ll be seeing more outcomes like this.
Butler had to have about 7 or 8 lay-ups off back-door cuts, and it is like the Friars have never defended that offensive set before. I understand trying to defend the 3, but you cannot be so aggressive as to leave the back-door wide open. The defender was too busy ball-watching instead of putting themselves between their man and the rim. Basketball 101.
Providence was only outrebounded by 5 boards, but this is a case where the stats don’t tell the true story. It was the 2nd half and overtime segments that really highlighted the weaknesses of the Friars that have plagued them all season long. Even when Providence was able to string together a defensive stop, which was a tall task in and of itself, Butler was able to secure an offensive rebound for a second chance opportunity. If a clean rebound by the Bulldogs didn’t transpire, a 50/50 loose ball would occur, and Butler seemingly ended up with the ball every time. You are watching the game ready to pull your hair out as every loose ball slipped through the hands of the Friars and ended up with the Bulldogs. Squeeze the basketball!
There was no play that more encapsulated this issue than the Edwards offense rebound in the second overtime where he somehow lost the ball trying to draw a foul. I admire the savvy attempt by the veteran to bait the ref into calling a foul (I don’t think it was a foul, for what it’s worth), but I cannot for the life of me understand how he lost the ball to Ajayi with Edwards initially having possession and two other Friars close by. How does Ajayi get that ball?! It defies logic.
If you rewatch the play, Ajayi pounces on the fumble by Edwards. Watch a bit closer. Hargrove and Vaaks are standing over Ajayi ball-watching while he lunges to the floor for the ball. They stand there like a deer in headlights as he gathers the ball and finds an open man. It ultimately found a Bulldog for an open 3 that ended up being the game winner. There weren’t enough plays in the 2nd half of this game where Providence was getting floor burns, diving on the court, and digging out the ball like Ajayi did on this one.
Providence is used to winning these close games under the prior regime, but it seems the tides have turned, and Providence has been on the losing end of these 1 possession games too frequently.
Providence has to bounce back quickly against a defensive juggernaut in the Seton Hall Pirates. The Friars need to protect home court if it looks to make a miraculous turn around in Big East play.
We revisit the keys to the game below and where the Friars go from here.
Revisiting the Keys to the Game
Defend the Three Ball
Butler ended up shooting 36% from three, which was about 3% below their season average. I actually thought Providence did a really solid job of running the Bulldogs off the three point line in their initial defensive sets; however, a lot of these makes were off second chance opportunities/scramble plays where a scattered defensive set led to an open look for the Bulldogs.
The one criticism I have is allowing Evan Haywood to go off from deep. He came into the game as arguably the Bulldog’s best three point shooter, and he lived up to that billing. Haywood is averaging 7.8 points on the game and 47.7% from 3. In typical Providence fashion this year, they allow a role player to go off against them, as he scored 18 points and buried 4-8 three’s.
Even though he’s been a role player for Butler, you have to know his game is the three ball, and Providence allowed their best shooter to put up 8 three point attempts. That just can’t happen.
Battle on the Glass
I thought the Bulldogs absolutely imposed their will on the Friars in the rebounding department, and I do believe the stats are misleading with them only have a +5 rebounding margin. Butler had 4 more offensive rebounds than Providence, but it felt like a double digit advantage.
I won’t belabor the point further, but Providence needs to be willing to swim in the deep end and scrap for these loose balls and rebounds. I thought Powell did a FANTASTIC job of that in the 1st half, and that triggered the comeback and halftime lead. That didn’t carry over to the 2nd half and overtime. There needs to be a grittiness to their game that is currently lacking. Providence does not have a lot of size in their frontcourt, and they need to make up for it by going after the ball off missed shots like their lives depend on it.
Jamier Jones & Playing Time
It is semantics at this point, but I think we are seeing the shift from Mela getting starter minutes to Jones, and it is warranted. Jamier had 11 points on 5-6 shooting with 4 rebounds in 29 minutes (4th most on the team), while Mela continued his up and down season with 2 points on 13 minutes. When Mela is on, he is a connective glue for this Friar team, but there have been too many games where he’s a non-factor.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Jamier is a starter before long, even as soon as the game against Seton Hall, but he will be getting starter’s minutes even if he comes off the bench the rest of the way. This Providence team is at its best when Jamier is on the court. Enough said.
Addressing the Foul Discrepancy
I already made my thoughts on the Edwards play in double overtime clear above, even if that isn’t a popular take amongst the Friar faithful. I had no problem with the play-on there from the refs, as you don’t reward a player in that situation. Edwards was an absolute assassin all game, and the Friars are never even in the game without his late game heroics, but it was a foolish play by him. It happens.
I thought the refs rewarded Bizjack a few times, specifically with that one play against Vaaks where he put up a horrific shot and flopped, and the refs rewarded him. That was unfortunate.
Friar fans are right to point out the foul discrepancy in this game, but if you look at our free throw numbers year to date, we just aren’t a team that gets to the foul line a lot. I called this out in my Big East Adjustments article (see below), but Providence is 163rd nationally in free throw attempts a game at 21.4 attempts. If the team wants more fouls called, Providence needs to be attacking the rim more, throwing the ball in the post to Oswin, and making the opposition defend. You aren’t going to get a lot of fouls called when your offense is perimeter based. It is just the way it is.
Ajayi got to the line 16 times because he relentlessly attacked the rim and forced PC to defend him 1 on 1. You put the refs in a precarious situation to make a call or play-on. It is an objectively harder play to ref when bodies are tangled everywhere in the post. More often than not, you’ll get a call. That’s why I keep advocating for more shot attempts at the rim. We all know Sellers and Jamier can do this at will. We just need to see more of it.
What’s Next
The season is on the brink of collapsing if Providence doesn’t protect home court against the Pirates. After that game, PC is on the road at St. John’s and then home against Connecticut. PC needs to get that one against Seton Hall or I think the season goes downhill VERY quickly.
This was an excellent Big East basketball game, Providence showed a ton of fight, but ultimately it was the things that have hurt Providence all year long which reared their ugly head in this one.
Go Friars.