Providence at 7-4 is about to dive headfirst into the deep-end with the start of Big East conference play. Providence has left itself with little to no margin for error the rest of the season. If PC wants to make the NCAA tournament, they need to, at a minimum, win 13 games in conference to get on the likely right side of the bubble. As we saw with Seton Hall two years back, even 13 wins doesn’t lock you in, so you are likely looking at needing 14 conference wins to feel extremely confident at landing an NCAA tournament bid as an at-large even if there are a plethora of bid stealers. A tall task, no doubt, but this is the path the Friars have charted for themselves.
The resume of the Friars in the non-conference is pretty binary at this point. They are 0-4 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but 7-0 in Quad 3 and 4 games. They’ve beaten the teams they should beat, but have lost to the teams ahead of them in the NET. No bad losses, which is a silver lining, but no resume boosting wins either. Thus, the Friars need to be both consistent in conference play, especially at home, and get a few quality road wins.
You wouldn’t have thought it at the start of the season, but Butler and Seton Hall ironically provide Providence with two resume building opportunities. Both schools have drastically outperformed their preseason expectations, and that is great for those two programs, Providence, and the Big East as a whole.
Butler on the road is a potential Q1 win for Providence, while Seton Hall at home will be a Q2 opportunity. With St. John’s on the road to start 2026 (Q1 opportunity) with Connecticut at home shortly thereafter (Q1 opportunity), Providence really can change the ENTIRE trajectory of its season in a four game stretch. Providence couldn’t ask for a better opportunity to erase the memory of the non-conference and put itself in a prime position for an at-large bid. Get to 3-1 in those 4 games, and I’ll begin discussing playing in the Tourney.
Below, we’ll provide an overview of the Butler program, who to watch for, and what Providence needs to do to secure a road victory to kick off Big East play.
Butler Resume Overview
7-2 with wins over South Carolina (6-3) and #24 Virginia (9-1), losses to SMU by 2 (9-1) and Boise State by 9 (7-3)
They have an impressive non-conference resume, particularly with the win over Virginia. If Butler threatens as a bubble team, it will be because of this November win against the Cavaliers.
KenPom: 48 (Providence 72)
NET: 43 (Providence 94)
Butler Players to Know
Finley Bizjack – Junior who has improved in each of his three years at Butler, a throwback in this world of free agency, transfers, and NIL. These are the type of stories that were commonplace in college basketball before the portal ran rampant. Averaged 4 points his freshman year, 10 points his sophomore year, and 18 points his current junior year. A career 38% three point shooter, he is red-hot from deep this year, averaging 41.9% on 2.9 made 3’s a game. He’s a scorer, plain and simple.
Bizjack is second in the Big East in points per game, tied with Jason Edwards. He is also second in Big East in three pointers made per game at 2.9.
Michael Ajayi – A revelation for the Butler Bulldogs, simply put. Started his D1 collegiate career at Pepperdine where he was First Team All West Coast before transferring to Gonzaga. Started 13 games and likely would have been a vital piece to the Gonzaga team this year, as he averaged 19 minutes a game, 6.5 points, 5.4 rebounds.
This year, he has been on an absolute tear. He is averaging 16 points (2nd on team), 11.6 rebounds (first on team), 3.2 assists (second on team). The 6’7 senior is going to be a match-up problem for Providence. I’d expect to see a healthy dose of Jamier Jones on Ajayi, but also Floyd Jr., Sellers, and Mela. I’m not sure we have anybody that can adequately contain him.
Ajayi is second in the Big East at 11.6 rebounds/game.
Jamie Kaiser Jr. – A sophomore who transferred from Maryland, the 6’6 wing is averaging 10 points and 5.6 rebounds. I call him to attention because he is currently shooting 45.8% from 3.
Butler Team Stats – Comparison to Providence and Big East
We have a large enough sample size where you should have a good feel for your team’s DNA, what they do well, what they do poorly, etc. The below gives a good pulse on Butler’s strengths and how they compare to Providence.
I’m only pulling stats that tell a story that should help the readers understand the keys to this game. For instance, the assist numbers for both teams are middle of the road relative to the rest of the conference, so I don’t see this as a determining factor in the outcome of the game. All of the below are included because I think they tell a story as to how this game will play out.
Points Per Game: Butler 87.6 (3rd in Big East), Providence 90.0 (1st in Big East)
Points Allowed: Butler 72.2 (6th), Providence 82.1 (last)
Three Point FG %: Butler 39.4% (1st), Providence 35.8% (4th)
Three Point Attempts: Butler 21.4 (last), Providence 27.2 (4th)
Free Throw Percentage: Butler 65.6% (last), Providence 79.1% (1st)
Rebounds: Butler 42.7 (1st), Providence 39.4 (3rd)
Turnovers: Butler 12.6 (10th), Providence 11.5 (8th)
Keys to Game
Please for the love of all that is holy, DEFEND THE 3
Providence is woefully inept thus far at defending the 3 point line. Nationally, they are 344th at defending the 3, allowing teams to shoot 37.8% from deep. Even worse, they are 358th in three pointers made at 10.5 makes allowed per game.
So, when you look at this game, there should be a million red flags waving in front of you. Butler not only is best in the Big East in three point field goal percentage, they do it at an incredibly efficient rate as illustrated by shooting the least amount of 3’s per game in conference.
When diving into the stats further, I also noticed that Butler is a really subpar free throw shooting team, last in Big East.
Thus, the blueprint should be simple for Providence. Run Butler off the three point line at all costs, force them to beat you from inside the arc, and don’t give up any free looks. Foul if necessary and let them try to beat you from the free throw line.
This Butler team is a really good offense and in all likelihood can still beat you from inside the arc, but you need to take away what they are best at.
It is imperative Providence doesn’t allow the Bulldogs to get going from deep or even give them the chance to get quality looks from deep.
Battle on the Glass
Butler is tops in the conference in rebounds, and it is really no surprise. Their frontcourt is massive with Traore and Jones manning the frontcourt at 6’11 each. Compound that with Ajayi being a pterodactyl on the glass, and Providence is really going to have a challenge on its hands.
We’ve seen Providence do a good job of recent of team rebounding, and it will be all hands on deck in this one. I know Providence wants to leak out and run off misses, but I think you need to tell all the Friars to help on the glass before getting out in the open court, even if that ends up hurting the Friars in transition.
Providence can’t have a repeat of the Colorado game where they were outrebounded by 10+ on the glass and gave way to too many second chance opportunities.
Turnovers Paramount
Butler’s leading assist man only averages 3.8 assists, so they may be running into a similar issue as Providence in that they don’t have a true point leading the way. For what it’s worth, I think Vaaks will be that guy for PC before long, but I digress.
Butler is really prone to turning the ball over, but so is Providence. The team that can get the edge in the turnover margin likely comes out ahead.
Jamier Jones – More Minutes
Jamier is averaging 17.9 minutes per game on the season, but is averaging 21 minutes over the last two games. English cannot be afraid to let him loose against higher competition, as we’ve seen in some of the earlier non-conference games where he’s limited in playing time.
Jones needs to be playing 20+ minutes moving forward, as he is too much of a net positive on this squad to be relegated to the bench. If that means eating into Mela, Floyd, and Powell’s minutes, so be it. Jones is showing he is one of the highest ceiling players on this team, and he cannot reach that ceiling watching from the sidelines.
English astutely leaned into Vaaks early, and it is time for him to do the same with Jamier.
Slow Down the Dynamic Duo
Butler only has three guys in double figures in scoring, which is a bit perplexing given they average 87.6 points a game. If you drill into the stats further, it is because Bizjack and Ajayi are so clearly the two dominant players on this roster, combining for 34.2 points/game.
Providence needs to dare the rest of this Butler squad to beat the Friars. I think Bizjack is an easier defensive scout of the two, all things considered, and I believe Ajayi is going to be a match-up problem all game for the Friars.
If they can make life difficult for these two, it gives them their best chance of winning.
Prediction
BOC: I want to pick the Friars, but playing a potent offense that are elite from deep seems like a recipe for a blow-out, especially with the game being on the road. Providence will keep it close, but the defensive shortcomings again bite the Friars in the end. Butler 89, Providence 85.
Providence needs to get this one for Corey.