Providence is fresh off arguably its best showing of the season, flipping the script on the narrative by winning a game through their defensive efforts. Off the backs of a 12 point neutral site win against a Big 10 foe, Providence is traveling out West to San Diego and looking to secure another victory against a Big 10 opponent in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin, 4-1 on the season, is licking its wounds after a 98-70 shellacking to the hands of the BYU Dybanasta’s. Prior to that, they’ve handled their business against mid and low major opponents, so this game will be a good litmus test to see how legitimate this Badger team really is. As of this writing, they are currently 23 in KenPom while Providence is 59.
All Thanksgiving tournaments are important, but this one, in particular, is vital for Providence to stay on track of its goals of attaining an NCAA tournament birth. The scenarios are relatively straightforward:
0 – 2: Serious questions bubble up again about this team, the coaching staff, and Providence has to dig itself out of a massive hole to even be in the discussion for an NCAA tournament bid. Not a place you want to be staring at a 4-4 record 8 games in and needing to likely win 13 games in the Big East to have a chance on Selection Sunday. Not ideal.
1-1: Status Quo and everything is still in front of Providence to attain an NCAA tournament birth, assuming they take care of the rest of the non-conference games.
2-0: Providence is ahead of schedule relative to preseason expectations, and PC fans are completely bought in on this team again. Talk is about this team finally gelling and finding its footing after a slow start. There is belief they can make a serious run to be a Top 3 team in the Big East.
A lot is riding on these two games, but unfortunately that’s the nature of this sport when you have already dropped two games in non-conference play.
This all leads to a collision course with Wisconsin in the opening game of the Rady Children’s Invitational. If Providence wins, I do have concerns that the game won’t be counted as legitimate as Johnny Davis isn’t playing, but we’ll cross that bridge when necessary.
The winner of this game faces (most likely) the defending champion Florida Gators. The loser (most likely) faces the Jamie Dixon-Jayden Pierre led Horned Frogs. For that reason alone, I want to see Providence come out on top against the Badgers as I can’t live with a loss to TCU on the back of Pierre hanging 25 on the Friars.
We detail the Wisconsin Badgers below and what Providence needs to do to come out on top.
Wisconsin Overview
Nick Boyd – 5th year senior who played for Dusty May on that infamous FAU squad and one year at SDSU – 6’3 guard averaging 19 points. A scorer in the truest sense who also is a pest on the defensive end at 1.8 steals per game.
John Blackwell – True junior who is a throwback in college basketball sticking with one team. Averaged 8 points as a true freshman, 16 points as a sophomore, and now 18 as a junior. Big bodied guard who can absolutely stroke it from 3, averaging 45% from 3. He helps out on the glass with 6 boards per game.
Nolan Winter – 7 foot junior in his third year at Wisconsin (noticing a trend). Averaging 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks.
Austin Rapp – 6’10 sophomore from Australia averaging 10 points.
Wisconsin Team Stats – Comparison to Providence
Points: 88.6 points, 93.2 Providence
Rebounds: 38.4, 41.8 Providence
Assists: 16 assists, 16.5 Providence
Turnovers: 9.8, 10.7 Providence
Keys to Game
Shutting Down Their Guards
This game is going to be won or lost in the backcourt, in my opinion. Boyd and Blackwell are the best guard combo that Providence will face to date, and it is imperative our backcourt defense shows up to make life difficult. They did a superb job on Mingo against Penn State, but did allow Dillione on Penn State to go off and have a career high. The scout should be to slow these two down at all costs, make life difficult for them with aggressive defense, and see if other guards on this Badger team outside of this duo can beat Providence. Against BYU, this tandem went 10 – 27 and totaled 30 points.
Blackwell cannot be given even an inch of space on the perimeter. Wisconsin will put the Providence defenders in pick and roll situations, and it is imperative that the Providence scout is to go over the top of the screen to force Blackwell into looks inside the arc.
I wrote in the Colorado recap how I’d like to see Providence avoid the drop coverage defense on pick and roll sets, and this may be the time to jump out on Blackwell and force the ball out of his hands.
Health of Frontcourt – Updated 11/27 AM
If there is a game for Powell to get back and show his worth, it is this one. Wisconsin has a lot of size in the frontcourt with Winter, Rapp, and Bieliauaskas all at 6’9 plus. Providence needs other bodies in the frontcourt beyond Oswin and Hargrove, and I’m hopeful Powell makes the trip and can play, even if he isn’t at 100% health. His size and physicality is sorely needed. If Oswin gets into foul trouble, it could be a long night trying to slow down the 7 footer in Winter.
UPDATE: Kim English announced yesterday on a Zoom call with media that Powell will not be available for this match-up. I received some pushback on social media when I mentioned that this is a big loss for the Friars, but I stand by that. Here’s why: Wisconsin currently has 6 guys on their roster that are 6’9 and above. Providence’s only frontcourt size that is getting playing time with regularity is Oswin and Hargrove. I’m not including Pinnis as I don’t think he is game-ready.
Even if Powell hasn’t gotten off to the start we all anticipated, he would be another body in the frontcourt to defend the size of Wisconsin. He’s a grad transfer with a solid build and size that can withstand the rigors of post play against a B10 opponent. This is a potentially big loss for the Friars no matter which way you analyze it. It means that Oswin is going to have to log 30 minutes, which is hard to do for Oswin as is, but also means he probably cannot be as aggressive because the Friars need him on the court and out of foul trouble.
Hargrove has done a serviceable job as the back-up big, but has struggled in this role when playing higher caliber teams like VaTech and Colorado. English has no other option to turn to now with Powell out. It limits the creativity that Kim has in the frontcourt and means that Oswin and Hargrove really need to do their best to avoid fouls. Hargrove, simply put, needs to play his best game of the season.
One other wrinkle we’ll likely see is Jamier playing the 4 and likely having to guard some Wisconsin guys a few inches bigger than him.
It’s all hands on deck in the frontcourt.
Mimic the BYU Blueprint
BYU has a head coach that comes from an NBA background and implements an NBA style offense. I think Tibaldi and the support staff are going to crunch the BYU – Wisconsin tape and see areas they can expose, particularly getting out in the open court and running.
Providence has the athleticism advantage in this one, and I want to see the pace that we’ve come to see thus far this season. The staff needs to hammer home to the bigs in Oswin and Hargrove to get out and RUN and beat their man down the court.
While I’ve harped on the poor shot selection from deep in the Penn State game, and that point still stands in my opinion, Providence can win this one with the 3 ball. BYU went 14-34 from deep.
On the defensive end, Providence needs to aggressively defend, be physical, and force the Badgers to show they can take care of the basketball for 40 minutes. BYU turned them over 12 times and limited them to 8 assists.
Team Effort on the Glass
While Providence has the advantage in the athleticism department, Wisconsin should have more size on the court in this one. They cannot let what happened against Colorado happen again in this one or we’re looking at a long night. Colorado outrebounded Providence by 11 boards. It will have to be all hands on deck with the guards crashing the glass.
Prediction
BOC: Providence wins a nailbiter and does just enough on defense to secure a victory. 85 – 83 Friars.
Crier: Providence’s athleticism disrupts Badgers but it’s a fight to the finish 80-76.