The time is here. Providence Friar basketball is upon us. I’ve wiped the slate clean from the horrors that were the 2024-2025 Providence Friars. Hope springs eternal, and I’m ready to entrust my emotional well being into the hands of 18-23 year old collegiate athletes again. What could possibly go wrong?
This is a big year for Kim English. For the first time in his two years at Providence, he’ll be without the cloud of Bryce Hopkins and his injuries looming over the program. Regardless of how Bryce does at St. John’s (and I expect him to do incredibly well), it was time for both parties to start fresh and part ways. A clean break was needed, and we can move forward with a new roster.
While fully acknowledging that Ed Cooley departed in the most horrific way possible, pathetically lying about his involvement with Georgetown in-season and proactively tanking a season that could have matched his career best at PC, it is also okay to acknowledge he and the Providence administration hand-in-hand lifted PC from the basement of the Big East and built PC to be a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament. The bar has been raised in Friartown to expect routine NCAA tournament births, and I think the success or failure of this year will come down to one end result: a tournament birth.
The school has given the basketball program everything it needs. NIL is not an issue, exemplified by landing high caliber transfers with legitimate production at the Power 5 level while concurrently retaining its top end talent from last year. The roster is in as healthy of a place as it has been in English’s tenure. It is time for PC to make the next step under English and attain a birth into the Big Dance.
I provide my thoughts on the season below, predict the non-conference and conference record, and give some individual projections on the roster. I close with some bold predictions as well.
Non-Conference Prediction
Providence’s Non-Conference Record: 9-2
PC heads into conference play at 9-2. This allows the Friars to, in theory, go .500 in Big East play and feel relatively comfortable about where they sit on the Bubble heading into Big East Tournament week.
How I got to this number: I think this record plays out if things go “status quo” for the Friars. If you were to ask me if 8-3 or 10-1 is more likely, I tend to lean towards 10-1, but my inherit bias may be showing there. I expect them to win both games at Mohegan and split out west in San Diego. The one “hiccup” I see is a road loss at Colorado. I don’t know why, but I feel like they may slip up there for whatever reason that I cannot explain logically.
The Thanksgiving tournament scares me, and I can easily see us going 0-2, but I do think they’ll find a way to go 1-1 there. 2-0 with Florida looming is probably out of the realm of possibility, but I’d love for the Friars to be in that position.
9-2 probably lends itself to not receiving votes in Top 25, but within shouting range. Again, not a bad place to be for a team threatening to make the NCAA Tournament.
The administration did a splendid job of scheduling a non-conference schedule that has a lot of neutral games against Power 5 teams that should help with the ever popular metrics. Those things shouldn’t matter, but they do, and you need to game the system in your favor as we’ve seen other conferences do historically.
PC Big East Conference Predction
Providence Record in Big East: 12 – 8 in Conference Play
Regular Season Final Record Prediction: 21 – 10
As with all predictions, the above is assuming a clean bill of health and no significant injuries. I do feel that 12 wins, assuming said health, is the floor for this Friar roster. If you asked me to predict the conference record after a few tall boys at the AMP, I could chart a path to 14-6 or 15-5, but the team would really have to be clicking for 14-6 or better to transpire, in my opinion.
I am taking into account that there is a clear difference at the top with St. John’s and Connecticut versus the rest of the Big East, and I do feel that the bottom 3-4 of the Big East should be clean sweeps for the Friars. I see a significant drop-off in team talent level after the first 7 or so teams.
If you look at historical finishes, 12 wins would slot Providence right around 5 in conference play, give or take one spot depending on the year. I have Providence predicted at 4th in conference, which would mean they’d have to get to 13 wins in conference to attain the 4th spot in all likelihood.
Postseason Prediction
It’s impossible to predict the Big East Tournament without seeing a bracket, but I’ll guess they win 1 game at MSG to get their final record to 22-11.
PC clinches an NCAA Tournament Bid as anywhere from a 6-10 seed. The Friars are dancing, and Friartown rejoices as they enter the fray of March Madness.
Individual Player Predictions
- Jason Edwards is a Top 3 Scorer in the Big East and is that alpha scorer we’ve missed since Devin Carter got shipped to Siberia (Sacramento). He’ll earn All-Big East First Team honors.
- Oswin Erhunmwunse makes the freshman to sophomore leap that Al McGuire spoke of. He gets DPOY honors for the Friars and Second Team All-Big East.
- Sellers, Powell, and Davis bring the edge to this team that they’ve so sorely lacked and become instant fan favorites for their ability to mix it up with the opposition.
- Corey Floyd Jr. is the consummate leader and does all the little things that complement this roster. He rightfully earns the title of Captain with his ability to effect the game outside the box score.
- Much to the delight of my partner Mike, Vaaks is an earlier than expected contributor and a key cog in the rotation.
- 4/5 of the starters on the 2026-2027 squad are currently on this roster. Roster continuity is here to stay, with no more 4-5 man portal classes.
Bold Predictions/Calling My Shot
- Providence has 3 all conference selections
- The freshman duo of Vaaks and Jones combine for 20 starts this year
- Providence finishes Top 3 in Big East
- Providence matches the apex of Cooley’s NCAA career, reaching the Sweet 16
What did I get right? What did I get wrong?
Go Friars!
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