Providence Loses Regular Season Finale to Xavier: Big Picture Takeaways Heading Into Next Season

We thought with the injury to Bryce Hopkins that this season had the potential to go off the rails. We didn’t think it would be this bad. Providence dropped to 12-19 after a 76-68 loss to Xavier in Cincinnati. This brought them to 6-14 in the Big East and 9th overall in the conference. Up next is Butler in the Wednesday tilt at Madison Square Garden for the opening round of the Big East Tournament.

How did Providence get here? Rather than break down specific game items from Xavier, we’ll use some factual evidence from the game to highlight the bigger picture problems that ailed Providence all season.

Backcourt Needs Improvement Heading into Next Year

Simply put, Jayden Pierre and Bensley Joseph have not been consistent enough all year to keep Providence afloat in the aftermath of the Bryce Hopkins injury. Bensley Joseph has the potential to carry this team with his scoring, but he is more of a scoring threat than a true point guard. This is exemplified by the good that came from Xavier (27 points on 9-14 shooting) and the bad (5 turnovers to only 2 assists). He isn’t having enough of those high scoring games above to offset the turnovers, which have plagued him all year. He’s the least of my concerns with this roster, for what it is worth.

I’ve written and spoke about Pierre enough, so I’ll just say that this season cannot end fast enough for him. He needs the offseason to get here so he can reset and get his mind right for next year. Pierre went 3-9 in this one. Over the last five games, he is 14-49. He is clearly slumping, and what makes matters worse is you can see it in the way he carries himself and in his facial and body expressions. He is a guy who is struggling and seems to know it. You can’t have your veteran moping around the court like he does.

At the end of the day, the slump for Pierre may be a blessing in disguise for the future of the Friars. I do think Pierre absolutely has a role on next year’s team, as averaging 12 points a game in the Big East is no small feat, but it is readily apparent that Kim cannot go into next year with Pierre exclusively running the show as lead man. If he takes this approach and adds nobody else to the backcourt, I think we’ll see another subpar season and potentially the last of Kim English as head man. English needs to be both honest with himself in his evaluation of the roster and with Pierre on his role on next year’s team if he wants to craft a roster that maximizes success for the Friars.

English bet on the two guards, and it was unfortunately a bet that failed. In retrospect, English likely should have brought in BOTH a Joseph and a 6’4+ guard that ran the offense alongside Pierre and let the trio of players duke it out for the starting backcourt, with the third being 6th man. Pierre and Joseph both are smaller in stature, which has significantly hurt the Friars on the defensive end. Both of them are close carbon copies of each other: shoot first guards who prefer to fill it up from deep rather than be a floor general setting up teammates to score. There is a role for this type of player, but you can’t have two of them on the court if they are both undersized and inconsistent.

Hopefully, this is a lesson learned for next year.

The Progression of the All-Freshman Duo

Oswin Erhunmwunse – Watching Zach Freemantle versus Oswin Erhunmwunse shows how important development is at the college game. Oswin is inarguably 10x the athlete of Freemantle; however, Zach has refined post moves that Oswin lacks. What I most want to see is Oswin really work on his post game to become a complete big. He made the All-Freshman team solely being a rim running lob threat. If he can develop one or two post moves, I think he has All-Conference potential NEXT year. The above the rim game will always be there for him. It’s time to make the next step in his progression.

I also made mention during the game how when Xavier was struggling offensively, they just threw it into Freemantle and let him work. Right now, Providence doesn’t have a player they can count on to manufacture a bucket. To use a parallel, think about how we’d just throw it down to Nate Watson and watch him bully his way to a bucket. I’m hoping Oswin can get to that level.

The other item I want to see from Oswin is limiting the fouls. Playing aggressive without fouling is a skill, and he has yet to find that happy medium. I have no clue what our frontcourt will look like next year behind Oswin, but my gut tells me we are going to have to heavily rely on him like this year (unfortunately). I believe Providence will need him to be on the court for 30 minutes a game, for better or worse.

Ryan Mela – Develop the perimeter shot. That should be Priority A, B, and C for him this offseason. He was a walking triple double threat this season with the defense knowing he cannot shoot. Think about that.

If he can become even a 32-33% three point shooter (currently 28%), I also think he has All-Conference potential, but his shot is just not there yet. More so than his shot not being there, he can kill the offensive flow at times with his hesitation in shooting. It allows the defense to recover and re-set. Mela is incredibly aggressive off the dribble, but he is putting a muzzle on his game with his inability to knock down the deep ball. If he is confident in this shot, the defender will close out on him which allows him to take his man off the dribble with the pump fake. That’s where he is at his best.

In conjunction with this, work on your free throws. In a stat fitting of this season, Providence may have the only white guy in the NCAA who cannot hit free throws. He went 0-5 against Xavier and was 57% on the season. That just cannot happen as a starting wing.

Frontcourt Depth Needed

Oswin played 31 minutes against Xavier and his back-up was redshirt freshman Eli DeLaurier. In 9 minutes, he had 0 points, 3 fouls, and 1 turnover. I have heaped praise on DeLaurier for staying ready despite inconsistent playing time, but he is neither a 5 nor ready to contribute at the Big East level. He works his butt off and hustles, but this should not be who we are turning to once Oswin exits the game.

This is an indictment on Essandoko and Bonke. Essandoko was pegged to be the starting five and came onto campus woefully unprepared physically and mentally. I think his time at Providence is coming to an end, and you have to wonder if there has ever been a bigger miss in the transfer world than Essandoko. The year prior, he averaged 8 points and 6 rebounds. This year, he is averaging 4 and 4 and is borderline unplayable due to his inability to adequately defend.

Bonke has three years of eligibility remaining, but they need to speed up his development this offseason. The fact that they are turning to DeLaurier instead of Bonke should serve as a warning sign and red flag. His pre-game athleticism doesn’t translate to in-game playing. I’m hoping the light bulb goes on this offseason because 7’2 players don’t grow on trees.

In mentioning all this, English needs to find a five man via the portal this offseason to be the first big off the bench. Most important, he needs to be somebody who sets the tone the moment he walks onto campus. We don’t need a guy who can score 15, although that’d be nice. We need a guy who is an enforcer, physical, and makes his presence felt the moment he walks onto the court. This team is not physical enough. Dare I say soft? An infusion of players that play with an edge and are borderline chippy is sorely needed. Think Ed Croswell. Emmitt Holt. We need a bully in the paint.

Barron To Re-Find His Form

I was nervous about Barron heading into this year for a variety of reasons: we added a ton of wing guys older than him in JAR and Cardet that would eat into his playing time. In retrospect, English should have doubled down on his high school recruiting prowess and trusted in Barron to make a jump from his All-Freshman campaign.

Additionally, Barron was coming off an injury that hampered him all offseason and into this season. That’s all to say him having a sophomore slump of sorts wasn’t too surprising to me. However, I think the folks writing him off are incredibly foolish and being shortsighted. He is what English wants on the offensive end. Barron was a 43% three point shooter last year. This year he was 34%. I think his collegiate average will fall somewhere in the middle of those two numbers, but he is somebody I want to see English prioritize in retaining.

If he can reshape his body like I expected him to after his freshman year to be a ball of muscle, he has the size to be an imposing wing in the Big East.

Offense Overly Reliant on Three Ball

Providence only attempted 11 free throws to Xavier’s 21. Xavier made 17 to Providence’s 4. That thirteen point gap is reflected in the twelve point win by Xavier.

Providence needs to do a better job this offseason constructing an offense that gets them to the free throw line. I’m hopeful the Hopkins return causes them to get back to living at the free throw line.