What a way to kick off Big East play, huh? Providence is hosting #7 Marquette at home Tuesday night, as both teams look to start conference play on a positive note. PC split the series last year with Big East champion Marquette, winning at home and losing on the road. Marquette returns the vast majority of their dominant team from last year, besides losing OMax Prosper to the NBA. They are led by Shaka Smart, who has revitalized his career in a massive way at Marquette after being shown the door at Texas (which I’ll never quite understand…).
Marquette is led by arguably the best point guard in the nation and the defending Big East Player of the Year, Tyler Kolek. Kolek’s partner in crime is springy big man Oso Ighodaro. Both players work incredibly well together in the pick and roll half court offense, and Kolek’s incredible vision will often lead to a plethora of transition buckets for the big man.
Kam Jones is one of the best pure scorers in the Big East and a threat every time he touches the ball. David Joplin has emerged in the starting line-up this year and is another weapon from deep.
Below, we preview what Providence needs to do to emerge victorious, start 1-0 in Big East play, and get to double digit wins on the early season.
Revisiting Games Last Year
Keys to the Game
Providence Exposing the Match-Up Problems – The more I reflect on the thrashing Oklahoma put on Providence (yes, I did say I was done with that game, but I’m a glutton for punishment), the more I realize just how difficult of a team they are to play against. Oklahoma has a ton of long, athletic wings, as well as a few 6’10+ big men who can stymie the physicality of Hopkins and offensive skillset of Josh Oduro.
I bring this up because Marquette is going to have a problem on its hands in how they deal with the frontcourt of Bryce Hopkins and Josh Oduro. Shaka is an excellent in-game coach, and I’m curious if he decides to throw Oso on Oduro or Hopkins. I think by default he has to play Ighodaro on Oduro and hope that Joplin can at least contain Hopkins. I don’t think Joplin has the size or foot speed to do so, which poses a problem for Marquette. If it becomes apparent Joplin isn’t up to the task, I’m certain they’ll throw doubles on both players to force other Friars to beat them. Oklahoma showed this to be a sound strategy when deploying occasionally throughout the game.
Marquette doesn’t have a lot of size, and Providence should be able to bully them in the frontcourt and on the glass. Hopkins needs to use his combination of speed and strength to get the Golden Eagles in foul trouble, get to the line, and finish around the rim. He’d be bailing out Marquette by settling in at the perimeter.
In the win against Marquette last year, Providence outrebounded Marquette 48 to 33. They need a similar showing in this one to secure a victory, and I think they have the team to do that.
While I think Oduro can make life difficult for Ighodaro on the offensive end, I think Oso is going to be a nightmare for Oduro to guard. Ighodaro is incredibly spring, fleet of foot, and athletic. The pick and roll Kolek deploys is a thing of beauty, and we’ve seen teams expose this aspect of Providence’s D at times this year. It is imperative that the guards fight tooth and nail through every pick because if Kolek gets a step, it forces Oduro to make a decision on helping on Kolek. This will lead to easy lobs to Ighodaro, pocket passes for an easy finish, or Kolek finding the open man on the perimeter for a 3 ball. Marquette is the defending Big East champs for a reason. They are a defensive assignment nightmare.
They aren’t going to stop Kolek. The question is: how do you do your best to contain him?
Insert Garwey Dual & Devin Carter – Dual has the physical traits to frustrate Kolek. He is a 6’5 point guard with an incredible wingspan. He has the footspeed to recover if Kolek gets a step on him and can potentially swat a few of his shots away as he recovers.
When Dual inevitably gets gassed, they can throw Carter on him too, who is an energizer bunny with a seemingly an endless supply of energy. Given how much Providence relies on Carter offensively this year, I’d task Dual with the lead job of guarding Kolek and put Carter on him in relief, in my opinion. Providence needs Carter to fill it up on the offensive end for PC to have a chance, and you don’t want him losing his legs because he’s chasing around Kolek on the defensive end for 40 minutes.
In the win against Marquette last year, Cooley astutely dared Kolek to beat them offensively rather than helping out on defense and playing into the strength of Kolek’s incredible vision. He did almost beat them to the tune of 29 points, but you have to pick your poison against Marquette. Ask Dual and Carter to take him 1:1, see if they can at least disrupt Kolek’s offensive flow, and force Tyler to beat the Friars by scoring. This strategy has worked in the past against Kolek. Providence may have to live with Kolek dicing them up in the mid-range and on drives, rather than daring Marquette to beat them from deep, which they absolutely can do. It’s a gut check game for this vaunted Friar defense.
Turnovers Will Determine The Game – It is imperative that Providence cleans up taking care of the basketball. I sound like a broken record continually stating this, but it rings true every game. You can get by a Sacred Heart team with 18 turnovers and still emerge victorious. If they have 15+ turnovers against Marquette, they will get run out of their own gym. Marquette is too good of a team to not bring your A game offensively and still expect a win.
Role Players Need to Threaten from Deep – Against Sacred Heart, Gaines and Dual went 1-10 from 3. You can’t have two of your starters be 10% combined from 3 when they are hoisting up double digit attempts. Providence as a team needs to shoot 35% from 3 in a game that will likely be a high scoring affair.
Pierre rounded into form against Sacred Heart going 3-5 from deep, and Barron was excellent going 4-6. Providence needs efficiency from its non-big 3 from the floor in order to have a chance to pull off the upset at home. If the Friars are cold from deep, Marquette can sag off them and clog the paint, disrupting the driving lanes for Hopkins and Carter.
Health of Carter & Floyd Jr. – English will probably never admit to this, but I’d bet he sat those two with very minor injuries as a precautionary measure, knowing they could still handle Sacred Heart. I’d anticipate both suiting up, but the game becomes a near impossibility without these two playing.
Predictions
BOC: I think Providence is going to put up a valiant effort against Marquette, but the turnovers will continue to doom the Friars. Marquette wins this one on the road 79 – 75.
Crier: There’s plenty to be concerned about for this Friar team against Marquette. Limiting turnovers and being solid on P&R are imperative. On the flip side the Golden Eagles are going to struggle to contain Hopkins and I feel like I trust PC’s role players at home more than I do Marquette’s on the Road. PC 78 MQ 72
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