A clash of two completely opposite approaches to coaching. Which will prevail?
Providence: #1 in Big East in Scoring, #12 nationally in Points/Per Game
Seton Hall: #1 in Points Allowed in Big East, #7 Nationally in Points Allowed/Per Game
Does a great offense beat a great defense or will a great defense beat a great offense? We’re about to find out.
Providence absolutely needs this one to keep the season afloat. At 7-5 and 0-1 in conference, this is a Quad 2 game at home that should realistically remain a Quad 2 game the entirety of the season unless Seton Hall completely falls off. With a road game against St. John’s immediately after followed by a home game against the Connecticut Huskies, Providence needs this win badly or the vultures will start circling. It’s a “got to have” game, and I hope English is reiterating that all week after the Butler loss.
We preview the game below with keys to victory.
Seton Hall Program Overview
10-1 on Season, KenPom 50, NET 38
Notable wins against NC State, Kansas State, and Rutgers, loss to USC
Seton Hall Players to Know
AJ Staton McCray – 14.3 points, 2.0 steals, 38.6% from 3
Tajuan Simpsons – 10.8 points, 48.3% from 3
Adam “Bud” Clark – 10.2 points, 5.5 assists, 2.0 steals, 22.2% from 3
Mike Williams – 9.5 points, 39.5% from 3
Najai Hines – 7.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 blocks
Stephon Payne – 6.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.6 blocks
Keys to Game
Providence Taking Care of Basketball
Shaheen Holloway’s teams are always excellent defensively, and that is because it is in his DNA as a former player and coach. They lead the Big East in 10.9 steals/game and 6.6 blocks/game. They are league best at allowing only 61.6 points per game (compared to Providence’s 84.7 – yikes). They are second in Big East to UConn at allowing teams to only shoot 38.7% from the floor, but are middle of the road in the Big East at allowing teams to shoot 33.3% from deep. That may be something Providence can exploit on the offensive end.
Providence is by far the more talented team, but they need to play mistake free basketball or as close to it as possible. Providence is doing an adequate job of taking care of the basketball at 11.6 turnovers a game (good for 6th in Big East), but they cannot be loose or reckless with the basketball. That is how Seton Hall thrives in these type of games.
Providence Has the Offense, Maximize Second Chance Opportunities
Lost amidst the Butler loss is probably us minimizing just how good of a rebounding team Butler is. Butler is tops in the Big East at rebounds/game at 43.4, but Providence isn’t far off at 39.8 (third in Big East). More importantly, Butler leads the Big East in offensive rebounds a game, and that showed true in the match-up against Providence.
Seton Hall is not a great rebounding team by any means, and I want to see Providence gang rebound to gain second chance opportunities on offense. Seton Hall averages about 5 rebounds less than the Friars, and Providence should do its best to impose their will on the glass.
I don’t expect Providence to average close to their 91.7 points per game, but I do think getting to 82-84 points is a realistic goal for the Friars. If they can get to this number, I do like the Friars chances.
Defend the Three Ball (Running Theme)
Seton Hall has a few guys that can get hot from deep. For a team that struggles offensively like the Pirates do (second to last in Big East at 76.5 points per game), you cannot let them get uncharacteristically hot on the offensive end because that will be a recipe for a decisive win for The Hall.
The Friars need to know their scout and which players can burn it up from deep and which can’t. They failed against Butler with Haywood, and they cannot let that happen again.
Don’t Settle for 3, Make Pirates Defend
Providence is leading the Big East in free throw percentage at 79.0%, and I’d like to see them try to steal the Butler recipe of attacking the rim and forcing the refs to make a call. The Pirates are a physical team and will put the refs in a position to swallow their whistle or call the game tight. You need to continually put the pressure on the zebras, especially in front of a raucous Friar crowd on Friday night. This is the path to success.
Be Ready for Full Court Press/Traps
Seton Hall is going to try and make the Friars uncomfortable with full court pressure the entirety of the game. Providence needs to have sets built in that help them break the press and get out in the open. If they aren’t prepared for this, it’ll lead to turnovers and easy buckets for the Pirates.
Prediction
BOC: The Pirates are going to muck this game up, but I’d honestly prefer to play a team that is elite defensively than elite offensively (like Butler). Providence is significantly lacking on the defensive end, but I’m not certain the Pirates can exploit them offensively like teams earlier this season have.
Providence has the offensive firepower to match an elite defense, and I think their offense wills the Friars to a victory. 83 – 79 Providence.
Crier: This game feels like a huge gut check for the Friars. PC was right there with Butler but lost a heartbreaker in double-OT. We mention above that it’s a game PC desperately needs yet Seton Hall has already shown their ability to play well on the road.
The key for me is to contain Merrimack transfer Budd Clark. He’s coming off a 16-point game against Rutgers, had 18 in a close loss to USC, and has had 7 games where he tallied at least 5 assists. Friars have shown to struggle against diminutive guards this year and that needs to change in this one.
Ultimately I see the Friars playing with desperation and urgency in this one. Feel like this game could be reminiscent of BYU last season. PC defends home court and get the win 86-76.
Ken Pom has us winning this game by 1 point, 78-77. We definitely need to bring an urgency and energy to our defense. Good Defense will win this game for the Friars. We need to keep from geting back cut like we did in the Butler game. Hargove needs to play with much more enthusiasm. Right now he looks lost out there.
Here is my starting line up: Vaaks, Sellers, Edwards, Powell and Erhunmwunse. Off the bench:
Jones, Mela, Floyd Jr., Hargrove (Only to give Oswin a rest or if he gets in foul trouble)
Defense will win this game! Go Friars!