Providence has dropped its last two at Mohegan, which is a bit baffling given the proximity to Providence’s campus. The two losses have come to St. Bonaventure and Virginia Tech. If Providence is going to right the ship this season, it starts with going 1-0 against the Nittany Lions before they depart for San Diego and an opening round match-up against the #23 ranked Wisconsin.
At the risk of sounding dramatic, this Penn State game may be up there as one of the most critical games of the Kim English era. A win here, and the fanbase can breath a temporary sigh of relief. A loss against Penn State to go 3-3 with 3 losses against Power 5 teams will cause the fanbase to completely disengage with the team, program, and coaching staff. There is A LOT riding on this game for all Providence parties involved.
If Providence wants to get back on track with an at-large bid for an NCAA tournament, the Friars need to go 2-1 over the next 3 games (at a minimum). Of the 3 upcoming games, this Penn State game is likely the easiest of the 3 to clinch a victory. It’s imperative that Providence comes out victorious in this one.
We provide below an overview of the Nittany Lions, highlight keys to victory, and speak to what we want to see from the Providence Friars.
Penn State Overview
5-0 on the season. 9 point win over Navy, 14 point win over La Salle, 4 point win over Harvard. Penn State 91 in KenPom while Providence is 70. For reference, Colorado is 90 and Virginia Tech is 59.
Kayden Mingo – 6’3 Combo Guard True Freshman who was 37 overall in 247Industry Rankings. For perspective, Jamier Jones was 40 overall. Older brother of Dylan Mingo, a consensus Top 10 player in 2026 high school class. Mingo leads the Nittany Lions in points (17.8), rebounds (4.8), and assists (4.4). The do-everything freshman is the catalyst for this Penn State squad. His downfall is 3 point field goal shooting percentage at 18%. Know your scout if you are the Friars!
Melih Tunca – 6’5 Freshman wing from Turkey (Oh god!) averaging 14 points and 55% from 3.
Freddie Dillone V – Transfer from Tennessee averaging 12 points. Wing player who scores, but not at an efficient clip like Tunca. Can’t put him on free throw line, as he shoots 92% from the charity stripe.
Ivan Duric – Freshman 7 foot Center from Croatia. Averaging 9 and 4.
Josh Reed – 6’8 PF transfer from Cincinnati. Averaging 9 points and 3 boards.
Team Comparison
Points 96.4 Providence, 82.0 Penn State
Rebounds 41.2 Providence, 31.6 Penn State
Assists 16.8 Providence, 15 Penn State
Turnovers 11.4 Providence, 7.2 Penn State
Blocks 5.6 Providence, 0.8 Penn State
Keys to Game for Providence
Who Slows Down Mingo? – It’s rare to see a Power 5 team who is led by a freshman in points, rebounds, and assists, but that is what we see with Mingo. The blue chip recruit is exceeding even the highest of expectations since landing in State College, and this should be priority #1 for Kim English on scouting the opponent.
He is too big of a guard for Edwards to defend, so we’ll see who gets the assignment. Personally, I’d task Sellers with trying to defend Mingo and then sub in Jamier Jones to spell Sellers. Mingo is going to get his offensively, but you can’t let him go off in this one.
It is also imperative that Providence knows the scout on Mingo. He wants to get downhill and use his frame to draw fouls and score. That’s how he manufactures his points. You can minimize his impact by sagging off of him from deep and daring him to shoot the 3 ball. He is a willing 3 ball shooter, attempting 22 3’s in 5 games, but only making 4. Invite him to shoot the 3 ball unless he gets uncharacteristically hot from deep early.
Play Downhill if You are Providence
Penn State has size in certain areas, but not a ton of athleticism. Averaging 0.8 blocks a game is almost impossible, but Penn State has accomplished that. This puts them at 4th worst nationally.
Providence should be able to beat their man off the dribble and not have to worry about too much rim protection. PC loves the 3 ball, but this is a game that should be won attacking the rim and in the paint.
The team that has the advantage in pain points is likely the team that comes out victorious.
Don’t Beat Yourself – Limiting Turnovers Critical
Penn State leads the nation in only turning the ball over 7.2 times a game, which is a stat you certainly want to lead the nation in. Providence is actually middle of the pack nationally at only 11.4 turnovers a game.
I study the stats of both teams and see decisive advantages across the board for PC in most categories except two (turnovers and field goal %). The way for Penn State to get the victory here is if they prioritize taking care of the basketball like they always do while Providence turns the ball over carelessly.
If PC can limit their turnovers to 10 or less, I really like the chances for the Friars. This can’t be a 15+ turnover game for Providence.
Defend for 40 Minutes
I want to see a complete game of defense from Providence. It’s imperative if Providence wants to threaten for an NCAA bid to string together full games of quality defense. Defense first has to be the calling card for the Friars moving forward to turn this thing around.
Penn State is 20th nationally in field goal percentage at 52.6%. This should be extremely concerning for Friar fans who have seen poor efforts defensively from Providence all season.
For what it’s worth, Colorado is 27th nationally in this stat while Virginia Tech is 107th nationally, and both teams absolutely hung it on Providence offensively. If PC doesn’t ratchet up the defensive efforts, we may see another 90+ point effort against the Friars
As with all high major games, the outcome will be decided by defensive effort. Will this be another game where Providence is allergic to defense? I hope not or we’re staring at 3-3.
Health of Players
Will Corey Floyd Jr., Duncan Powell, Daquan Davis, or Rich Barron suit up? If not, Jaylen Harrell has to be ready to log 15-20 minutes. I’d rather him get those minutes than Daniels, who would get exposed against Penn State. Shorten the rotation to 7-8 guys and ask them to log serious minutes. They have time to rest and recover. No need to get cute with line-ups and rotations.
Prediction
BOC: This one will come down to defense. If PC can incrementally improve their defense and prioritize taking care of the basketball, I could see a decisive victory by 7-12 points. However, I’m in show me mode, and Providence hasn’t shown they can play a lick of consistent defense for 40 minutes. This one is closer than we all like, but PC finds a way 90 – 88. A win is a win, but the PC faithful still question the direction of this team.
Crier: The big thing for me is the guys who sat out last game. If they do play how are they integrated? PC did seem to find something in the second half against UNH and I worry integrating the other pieces back in could mess with the momentum PC is looking to carry over from Tuesday. Believe it or not Penn State’s defense is worse than PC’s. So is their offense. I think PC ekes one out despite Mingo having a big day, PC 88 PSU 84
Given your report I would guess that Mingo will consistently get to the rim and Tunco will be left open on the perimeter.